Huge Inflows, No Pump? Here’s What’s Really Happening
Bitcoin ETFs are seeing massive inflows, spot volume is rising — yet price barely moves. Confusing? The answer lies in cash-and-carry arbitrage.
In bullish conditions, futures often trade above spot (contango). Large funds exploit this by:
Buying BTC on the spot market
Shorting BTC futures at a higher price
They lock in the price spread and earn a risk-controlled yield when spot and futures converge — regardless of BTC’s direction.
Why price doesn’t move:
Spot buying increases ETF inflows and volume, but the equal futures short creates opposing pressure. These forces cancel out, leaving net flow neutral and price stuck sideways.
Key takeaway:
Don’t assume inflows or rising open interest are bullish. If OI is high, funding rates are positive, and price is flat, it’s likely arbitrage — not real demand.
News creates narratives, not signals. Structure and flow matter more than headlines.$BTC
