The bear trend for MERL has been established! Behind the weak rebound, $0.2 has become a key turning point.
Recently, the market adjustment has been sudden and severe, with BTC and ETH almost plummeting vertically, causing emotions to freeze instantly. The once hotly discussed narrative of a "super bull market" has dissipated, and even mainstream stablecoins are showing signs of decoupling. The signals of liquidity being drained could not be more obvious—this is not an ordinary correction but a clear turning point for the trend.
In such a bearish pattern, the weakness of $MERL is particularly striking. Over the past month, it has attempted to break through the critical resistance at $0.5 three times, each time failing. The apparent increase in volume is actually a result of weak buying momentum, a typical case of "false breakout, real trap." When the market turns bearish, it is almost impossible for altcoins to stand alone; the downward continuation structure of MERL is already clear, and under the weak rebound, the area around $0.2 is becoming the core window to observe the strength of the trend.
The technical weakness is the most intuitive signal. Each of the three attempts to break through $0.5 encountered resistance, with selling pressure surging and trading volume increasing as it approached, creating a "structural resistance ceiling." More critically, there is a divergence between volume and price—buying momentum during the attempts lacked sustainability, and the main funds are cautious at this position, with upward momentum already exhausted. Coupled with the adjustments in BTC and ETH that suppress market risk appetite, it is even more difficult for MERL to break through.
The pressure on the supply side is intensifying. December is known as the "unlocking peak month," with a total of about 70 million MERL to be released on the 12th, 15th, 16th, and 19th, instantly expanding the circulating supply. Even if OTC holders do not sell all at once, the market's expectation of "oversupply" will cause buying to retreat, leading holders to reduce their positions in advance. Early low-cost profit-taking chips are just waiting to "cash out at highs," and any rebound may bump into the selling pressure from this batch of sell orders.
The unusual movements of on-chain funds add to the chill. Recently, a large holder transferred 16 million MERL (about $8 million) from their wallet to the Bybit exchange, and such a large transfer is often directly related to preparation for sale. More subtly, the timing—this action occurs just before the concentrated unlocking, resembling a "head start" to avoid subsequent liquidity risks. Such public actions can be amplified by the market, strengthening bearish expectations and triggering follow-up selling or hesitation, creating a negative emotional cycle.
Why is $0.2 worth paying attention to? This is not about guessing the bottom but validating the trend's turning point. Currently, $MERL is in a downward continuation, and if it falls back to this level, two possible scenarios may emerge: one is that the bearish forces exhaust here, forming a temporary support; the other is that a breach triggers panic selling, confirming a deeper decline. Regardless of which occurs, both provide more reference value than blindly trying to catch a bottom or chase a short—this helps you see whether the trend is at its end or just gaining momentum.
In terms of operation, being bearish does not mean rushing to short. True trend trading requires waiting for signals: first, if a rebound meets resistance again in the $0.45-$0.48 range, forming a secondary high, at that point, one can gradually lay out short positions; second, if the price breaks below recent lows with increased volume and cannot quickly recover, follow up after confirming the continuation of the decline. Stop-loss must be strict; do not hold on with the hope of "hanging on," as liquidity recedes, cash and following the trend are the best defenses. Remember, do not follow weak rebounds, and do not hesitate when breaking levels.
In a bear market, surviving and keeping up with the trend is more important than anything else. The downward structure of $MERL is clear, and we are not waiting to catch the bottom but for a high-probability shorting point. Once the signal appears, execute decisively, and when the market completes this round of clearing, the dawn of the next cycle will inevitably come. The current strategy mainly focuses on laying out short positions at highs, seizing the opportunity of the weakening structure, and patiently waiting for the right moment to make long plans.
