Family! The calendar for 2025 is almost torn to the last page, but the crypto circle hasn't given a thought to the 'year-end summary.' Everywhere, a soul-searching question is circulating wildly: Can Bitcoin kick open the door to 100,000 dollars before the New Year’s bell rings?
To be honest, these days when I open the market software, I can feel the anxiety from the other side of the screen. After all, the spike and drop in October is still fresh in my memory. Now, Bitcoin is stuck in the range of 90,000 to 93,000 dollars, swaying like you flipping through books before an exam but not knowing where the key points are. Some are shouting, 'This is a golden pit, it's the right time to buy the dip,' while others are banging on the table warning, 'Don't jump in, this is a trap set by the main force to lure you in.'
As a seasoned player with eight years of experience, I can proudly say: don't just stare blankly at the candlestick charts; we need to look beyond the surface to see the essence. These three signals are the key to determining the year-end trend. Those who understand can avoid taking half the detours!
Let's first talk about the macro environment, which is the 'anchor' for all assets. Some friends might think, 'What does the macro have to do with crypto?' That's a big mistake! The recent statements from the Federal Reserve have been very clear; the probability of interest rate cuts is rising sharply next year, and the global trend of liquidity easing is evident. It's important to know that Bitcoin is essentially the 'leader among risk assets.' When liquidity expands, hot money will definitely flow into high-return areas like this. However, there's a detail to note: institutions typically have the habit of 'locking in profits' at year-end, and some funds may leave early to secure gains, which will create short-term selling pressure. So personally, I judge that the macro environment is 'long-term favorable, short-term disruptive.' Don't expect everything to happen all at once.
Now, looking at the ETF fund flows that everyone is most concerned about, this is the 'traffic driver' in the crypto world this year. From the latest data, the ETF is still in a net inflow state, but the growth rate has obviously slowed down, especially in the past week, when there have been several instances of small-scale redemptions. What does this indicate? It's not that the market has lost confidence, but rather that everyone is 'holding coins and waiting,' just waiting for a clear signal. I have talked with several institutional friends, and their current strategy is 'buy low, not chase high.' As long as Bitcoin can stabilize above $95,000, subsequent funds will definitely follow in; but if it breaks the $90,000 support level, it may trigger a wave of short-term panic selling.
Finally, I must mention the movements of large funds, which are the 'behind-the-scenes drivers' of the market. Recently, I've been monitoring the positions of large funds and found an interesting phenomenon: some old players are quietly reducing their positions, while another group of new institutions is quietly taking over. This indicates that there is significant divergence in the market, and it's not a one-sided trend. Moreover, looking at trading activity, the trading volume in the evening European and American markets is noticeably higher than in the Asian market, which also means that the year-end trend will largely depend on the actions of European and American institutions. Personally, I think these large funds are currently 'dragging their feet,' intentionally creating fluctuations in this range to wash out retail investors who can't hold on. Once they have collected enough chips, they will then choose a real direction.
At this point, some friends will surely ask: do you really think it can break $100,000? Don't rush; my view is very clear: there is a chance, but don't have too high expectations. If we can hold the support at $90,000 and if ETF funds can accelerate their inflow again, it is completely possible to make a push for $100,000 by year-end; but if something unexpected happens in the macro environment or if we break through key support levels, then it's highly likely that 'there will be no chance before the Spring Festival.'
That said, investing never has a 100% certainty. I will monitor the market and fund data every day and will update you in the comments section with the latest developments. Do you think Bitcoin can break $100,000 by year-end? Or are you currently holding coins or in cash? Hurry up and chat in the comments section, follow me so you don't get lost, and I will also provide detailed operational strategies to help everyone avoid those 'pits' at year-end@男神说币 #加密市场反弹 $BTC
