向阳老四
--
This week, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. To be honest, there isn't much to interpret about this; the market had already priced it in.
What truly raises concerns is something that many people have overlooked👇
The Federal Reserve will initiate a Treasury reserve management purchasing program within the next 30 days.
First, let’s look at a few key points:
• Initial scale: $40 billion
• Start date: December 12
• Reserve growth may continue until April 2026
It’s not called QE, but the effects are very similar to QE.
As long as the Federal Reserve buys Treasury bonds, the reserves in the banking system will increase, and system liquidity will improve.
In my view, this resembles a subtle, gradual form of “invisible QE.”
More importantly, it’s about direction.
For the past two years, the Federal Reserve has been doing one thing: reducing the balance sheet + withdrawing liquidity.
Now, the balance sheet is shifting from “one-way contraction” to a phase of net injection.
This isn’t a scale issue; it’s a turning point issue.
We have consistently emphasized a simple logic:
👉 Liquidity > Interest rates > Fundamentals
Historically, almost every time the bank reserves start to rise and the balance sheet stabilizes, risk assets tend to react in advance.
At the same time, the interest rate market is also aligning with this signal.
Federal funds futures are already pricing in:
• 2 more rate cuts before 2026
• A total of about 50 basis points
What does this mean?
It means that the policy environment may be more dovish than the current market consensus.
This is especially important for the cryptocurrency market.
$BTC is not priced based on cash flow; one of its core drivers is the tightness or looseness of U.S. dollar liquidity.
Once the Federal Reserve shifts from withdrawal to injection, even if it’s “invisible,” the market will begin to price it in advance. For example, $ETH and $ENA will likely perform well.
Especially during:
• After the halving
• Increased institutional participation
• The market is still in a phase of emotional recovery
So the conclusion is actually quite simple:
This is not a massive QE like in 2020,
But it could very well be—an underestimated liquidity turning point.
And the market often starts moving before most people are aware.
What truly raises concerns is something that many people have overlooked👇
The Federal Reserve will initiate a Treasury reserve management purchasing program within the next 30 days.
First, let’s look at a few key points:
• Initial scale: $40 billion
• Start date: December 12
• Reserve growth may continue until April 2026
It’s not called QE, but the effects are very similar to QE.
As long as the Federal Reserve buys Treasury bonds, the reserves in the banking system will increase, and system liquidity will improve.
In my view, this resembles a subtle, gradual form of “invisible QE.”
More importantly, it’s about direction.
For the past two years, the Federal Reserve has been doing one thing: reducing the balance sheet + withdrawing liquidity.
Now, the balance sheet is shifting from “one-way contraction” to a phase of net injection.
This isn’t a scale issue; it’s a turning point issue.
We have consistently emphasized a simple logic:
👉 Liquidity > Interest rates > Fundamentals
Historically, almost every time the bank reserves start to rise and the balance sheet stabilizes, risk assets tend to react in advance.
At the same time, the interest rate market is also aligning with this signal.
Federal funds futures are already pricing in:
• 2 more rate cuts before 2026
• A total of about 50 basis points
What does this mean?
It means that the policy environment may be more dovish than the current market consensus.
This is especially important for the cryptocurrency market.
$BTC is not priced based on cash flow; one of its core drivers is the tightness or looseness of U.S. dollar liquidity.
Once the Federal Reserve shifts from withdrawal to injection, even if it’s “invisible,” the market will begin to price it in advance. For example, $ETH and $ENA will likely perform well.
Especially during:
• After the halving
• Increased institutional participation
• The market is still in a phase of emotional recovery
So the conclusion is actually quite simple:
This is not a massive QE like in 2020,
But it could very well be—an underestimated liquidity turning point.
And the market often starts moving before most people are aware.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
0
0