"Do you remember the "ECG" from July? This version has been updated"
This time, everyone's so nervous about the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, largely due to the shadow of that "historic scene" in 2024: a slight policy adjustment led to a crazy surge in the yen, a global deleveraging began, and Bitcoin dropped to the point where many questioned their existence, along with a massive evaporation of the total market cap in crypto. Now the media has started to review that moment again, which inevitably makes people feel uneasy.
But this time, the plot is somewhat different:
Anticipatory rate hike: Central bank officials have made remarks in advance, and the market has already factored in a 0.75% expectation;
Decrease in leverage: The number of open contracts is significantly less than during last year's frenzy;
On the exchange side, from officials to the community, there are various educational efforts advising "not to open high leverage recklessly."
So, rather than saying the market is afraid of "copying and pasting 2024," it might be better to say they are checking:
How many people are still using last year's script as this year's strategy?
My own approach is to treat this interest rate hike as "a practical stress test":
It's not about guessing how the K line will move, but rather taking the opportunity to see—if volatility comes again, can your position design, margin buffer, and emotional resilience be better than last year's batch of people?
History won't simply replicate itself, but it will repeatedly test the same question.
Is your answer sheet filled out? $BTC
