Recently, Bitcoin's price movement has shown weakness, and market sentiment appears quite cautious. The price has made multiple attempts to break through important support and resistance levels but has consistently failed to maintain a stable upward momentum. Particularly, when Bitcoin approaches key ranges, there is often strong selling pressure, leading the market into a short-term adjustment. This technical failure has not triggered large-scale panic selling in the short term, but it has provided valuable opportunities for bears and resulted in a decline in overall market confidence.

In this macro environment, MERL's performance appears particularly fragile. Although $MERL has also attempted to break through the critical price level of $0.5 in the past period, each time it approaches this resistance, it has faced fierce suppression from bears, failing to maintain upward momentum and instead showing a noticeable pullback. This repeated technical failure further exacerbates the bearish atmosphere in the market and causes MERL's market structure to gradually weaken, making the possibility of a breakout increasingly slim.

Additionally, the large-scale token unlock event in December brings new risks to the market. The concentrated release of 70 million $MERL tokens is expected to have a significant impact on the market's supply and demand relationship. Although the unlocked tokens may not all be sold off, the panic sentiment in the market has already begun to spread in anticipation, with buying pressure gradually shrinking and selling pressure continuously increasing, leading to a potential further decline in price in the short term.

Meanwhile, unusual on-chain fund movements have also intensified market unease. Recently, approximately 16 million $MERL (about $8 million) has flowed into the Bybit exchange, indicating that large holders have begun to prepare for offloading in advance. Such on-chain fund movements often signal that the market is about to enter a selling phase, and investors seeing the withdrawal of these large amounts of funds may further heat up panic sentiment, potentially triggering broader sell-offs.

I believe the current market faces multiple pressures, and the bearish trend of MERL is very evident. Whether it is Bitcoin's lackluster performance, the upcoming token unlock, or the withdrawal of large funds, all indicate that the market is unlikely to escape downward pressure in the short term.

Therefore, investors should be wary of the potential for a larger correction in the market, seize bearish opportunities, position for short positions at highs, ensure risk control, and prepare for the upcoming market fluctuations.