Crypto exchange Bitfinex says spot market activity has slowed dramatically this quarter — and history suggests this kind of contraction often comes before the next major phase of a market cycle begins.

Spot Trading Volume Falls Sharply

According to Bitfinex, crypto spot trading volumes have plunged as much as 66% from their January peak, reflecting a broad pause in risk-taking across the market. The exchange attributes the slowdown primarily to:

Weaker ETF inflows, reducing fresh demand

Heightened global macroeconomic uncertainty, prompting investors to stay on the sidelines

In a post published on X on Sunday, Bitfinex noted that similar slowdowns have appeared repeatedly in past cycles, where extended periods of declining activity often preceded renewed growth and trend expansion.

On-Chain and Market Data Confirm the Trend

Data from CoinMarketCap supports Bitfinex’s assessment. Over the past 30 days:

Total crypto spot trading volume fell from over $500 billion in early November

To roughly $250 billion this week

Throughout late November and early December, daily volumes struggled to stay above the $300–$350 billion range, with several sessions dipping close to $200 billion — the lowest levels seen in months.

This decline followed a brief spike in mid-November, when volumes surged above $550 billion before quickly reversing lower.

Bitcoin Approaches a Volatility Breakout

Market analysts argue that the current environment closely resembles past periods that occurred just before major Bitcoin rallies.

In a recent post on X, analyst Michaël van de Poppe highlighted that Bitcoin’s price structure is becoming increasingly compressed, suggesting that a significant breakout may be approaching — especially with key macroeconomic events scheduled for the coming week.

> “Bitcoin is holding above this critical region, but I believe volatility will increase significantly in the coming days,” van de Poppe said.

He identified $89,000 and $92,000 as critical levels to watch. A decisive break above this resistance zone could allow Bitcoin to accelerate toward the $100,000 level before 2026. Conversely, a loss of support could trigger another test of lower price ranges.

Market Pullback Despite Fed Rate Cut

Despite these longer-term bullish signals, short-term market sentiment remains cautious.

According to Coinphoton, Bitcoin briefly rallied to $94,330 earlier this week, driven by a $962 million Bitcoin investment from Strategy — the company’s largest BTC purchase since mid-2025.

However, the rally quickly faded as investors turned their attention to the final Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the year.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, exactly in line with market expectations. While the announcement initially sparked optimism, the effect was short-lived.

Analyst Jeff Ko of CoinEx noted that the rate cut had limited impact because it was fully priced in, leading traders to adopt a wait-and-see approach rather than chase prices higher.

Why Falling Volume Matters

While shrinking volume may appear bearish on the surface, Bitfinex argues it often reflects:

Market exhaustion after strong moves

Capital rotation and consolidation

A reset phase before renewed participation

Historically, these conditions have frequently marked the transition phase between market cycles, rather than the end of bullish potential.

The Bigger Picture

With volatility compressing, volumes depressed, and Bitcoin holding key structural levels, the market appears to be entering a critical inflection point.

Whether this phase resolves into a breakout toward new highs or a deeper correction will likely depend on:

Upcoming macroeconomic data

Liquidity conditions

Renewed institutional participation

For now, Bitfinex’s message is clear: low volume does not mean the cycle is over — it may mean the next one is preparing to begin.

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