Ethereum is at a critical crossroads, with the $3000 threshold facing severe challenges tonight. From the current market perspective, the price has shown signs of fatigue.

Currently, the ETH price hovers around $3104, having dropped to the short-term moving average MA7. More importantly, the short-term and long-term moving averages are forming a critical technical pattern, which is usually a signal that bearish forces are beginning to gather. The $3113 level above has become significant resistance; if it cannot break through quickly with volume, the downward pressure will increase rapidly.

Upon close observation of the chart pattern, the price was unable to maintain its brief touch at the $3135 peak and has since retreated, indicating a lack of confidence from the market bulls. The key support below is at the $3082 level, which is the first line of defense for the bulls. If this position is effectively breached tonight, the price is likely to test the $3050 area and further approach the psychological level of $3000.

From the momentum structure, the price is operating below two key moving averages, and the short-term moving average shows a downward turning trend, indicating that selling pressure is increasing. If the market lacks new positive news to boost confidence, or if the overall sentiment weakens, the likelihood of testing $3000 does indeed exist.

Tonight, two key positions need close attention. If the price can firmly hold above $3100 and return to above $3120, the short-term risk is expected to ease. However, if it continues to run below $3100, especially dropping below the $3080 level, the market will initiate a test of $3000.

Whether it can hold this integer level will directly affect the strength of subsequent trends.

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