#加密市场反弹 Brothers, Japan's rate hike countdown is on for December 19. Will the cryptocurrency market crash? The Bank of Japan may take significant action, and market expectations for a rate hike have soared to over 80%. This is the most significant monetary policy shift in Japan in 30 years. Do you know what this means? If Japan raises rates on December 19, the cryptocurrency market may face a short-term pullback pressure of 15% to 25%. Bitcoin could drop from $90,000 to between $80,000 and $85,000, and mainstream altcoins like Ethereum may see even larger declines, reaching 20% to 30%. Why is it so serious? Because the yen is the world's largest currency for arbitrage trades, with a scale of up to $3.4 trillion. These funds are borrowed in low-interest yen to buy high-risk assets like Bitcoin. Once rates rise, financing costs will soar from 0.1% to 0.75%, leading to large-scale liquidation of arbitrage trades, and funds will withdraw from the cryptocurrency market to repay yen debt. This is not alarmist; in August 2024, an unexpected rate hike by the Bank of Japan caused Bitcoin to plummet over 15% in a single day, dropping from $62,000 to $49,000. However, there are three key differences between this time and August 2024. First, market expectations are more fully priced in; last time was an unexpected rate hike, but this time signals have been released in advance, leading to a smaller scale of arbitrage trades. After the last round of cleansing, current leverage levels and position concentrations are milder than before. Third, the Federal Reserve may be lowering rates. What do you think, brothers? Let's discuss in the comments section $ETH 🐶P U PP IE S🐶🐶#欢迎大家交流