These are the upcoming events in the world of digital currencies that may significantly impact the market:
Expiration of MicroStrategy's Bitcoin sale contract on Polymarket (December 31, 2025)
US Consumer Price Index data released (January 13, 2026)
MSCI Decision on Classification of Cryptocurrency Vaults (January 15, 2026)
US Federal Reserve Policy Meeting (January 28, 2026)
Detailed analysis
1. MicroStrategy Bitcoin sale contract expires on Polymarket
Overview: Prediction on Polymarket titled “Will MicroStrategy Sell Bitcoin by December 31, 2025?” On this date. MicroStrategy owns more than 650,000 BTC, and a sudden sale could send a huge shock to the market.
What this means: If the result is “yes” (sell), it could lead to a wave of cascading sell-offs and panic in the market. Even low-probability bets here are considered a hedge against a catastrophic scenario.
(CoinMarketCap)
2. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released
Overview: The CPI report on January 13 will influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. Higher-than-expected inflation could delay interest cuts, putting pressure on cryptocurrencies as risky assets.
What this means: Cryptocurrency markets often move 5-10% around the release of CPI data. A high reading may strengthen the dollar, while a low reading may strengthen the Bitcoin story as a hedge against inflation.
(CoinMarketCap)
3. MSCI decision on the classification of digital currency vaults
Overview: MSCI's decision on January 15 will determine whether companies that rely heavily on cryptocurrencies like MicroStrategy will be reclassified as "funds," which could lead to their exclusion from major stock indexes.
What this means: The exclusion could lead to a forced selling of between $2.8 and $8.8 billion by passive funds, weakening one of the main buyers of Bitcoin.
(CoinDesk)
4. Federal Reserve Policy Meeting
Overview: The Federal Reserve meeting on January 28 will set the dates for interest rate cuts. Current odds are leaning toward no cuts, but labor market and inflation data may change expectations.
What this means: Tight signals (postponing downgrades) may reduce the liquidity of cryptocurrencies, while lenient signals may stimulate a market recovery.
(CoinMarketCap)
Conclusion
Immediate Focus: MicroStrategy Contract Expiry (December 31) Poses Asymmetric Risk—Watch the Yes contract price on Polymarket (currently $0.009) as an indicator of market sentiment changes. A rise in price here may indicate increased fear of a major sell-off in Bitcoin. Positive expectations if the contract ends with “no,” and negative if it ends with “yes.” Be alert for major economic catalysts (CPI and Fed) in January, which may increase market volatility amid the current 'fear' and high leverage.
