In the crypto market, money is measured not only by quantity but also by age. HODL Waves is the ultimate Onchain metric that classifies capital into two distinct camps: Hot Money (Young Money) and Smart Money (Old Money). Understanding the rotation between these two groups is key to the market cycle.
🔸 Flow classification:
Young money < 1 week to 3 months.
This is speculative, impatient, and emotional capital.
It represents new participants prone to FOMO when prices rise, and panic selling when they fall.
When these short-term groups expand, the market overheats.
Old money > 1 year.
This is the capital of long-term holders and whales.
They buy when no one is paying attention, and hold through the winter.
When these groups dominate, the market is in a phase of sustainable accumulation.
🔸 At the peak of every bull market, you will always see a recurring phenomenon:
Old money is decreasing. Whales start to dump the coins they bought at the bottom.
The scales of young money are significantly expanding. Retail investors rush to buy these coins at peak prices.
👉 This is a transfer of wealth from Strong Hands to Weak Hands. When Young Money occupies more than 50 to 60% of Realized Capitalization, a crash is inevitable, as there’s no one left to buy at higher prices.
🔹 Don’t just look at the price. Look at the colors of the waves.
If you see warm color groups Red, Orange that are sharply rising, prepare your exit plan.
If you see cold color groups Blue, Purple that are expanding and dominating, hold tight or accumulate, as whales have not left the game yet.
Are the bitcoins you hold Old Money or Young Money? Are you aware that your position determines 90% of your probability of winning?
News for reference, not investment advice. Please read carefully before making decisions.
