PiCoin has been showing weakness since the end of November. After reaching a peak at the end of this month, the price has fallen by about 28%, giving back most of the previous gains. In just the last 7 days, PiCoin has decreased by about 8.6%. Over the last 3 months, the losses have exceeded 40%.
Despite this weakness, new signals are emerging in the latest chart data. The pressure of momentum has begun to change, and expectations are growing that this adjustment may soon stop. Will this halt lead to a rebound, or will it result in a complete directional reversal? Let's check now.
Momentum pressure eases... buyers still hesitate
On the daily chart, PiCoin formed a hidden bullish divergence from November 4 to December 11. During this period, the price made higher lows, but the relative strength index recorded lower lows. The RSI tracks the speed of buying and selling to measure momentum. If momentum weakens while the price remains at high levels, it usually signals that selling pressure is weakening.
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Such divergences typically appear near the end of a sharp decline. It does not confirm a direction change on its own, but often appears prior to a rebound attempt when selling pressure weakens.
However, momentum signals alone are not sufficient. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which shows who is leading the trading volume among large-scale buying/selling forces, is still sending caution signals. The CMF is nearing a test of the downtrend line (the line connecting lower lows) and is moving below the zero line. This means that large-scale fund flows have not yet turned favorable for PiCoin.
In simple terms, the selling pressure has weakened, but large-scale buying has not yet started to flow in. Therefore, the attempts at a rebound are very unstable. Before the flow of funds improves, there is a high possibility that upward attempts will encounter strong resistance. If the CMF collapses below the trendline, the scenario of a rebound (not a reversal) for the Pi Network coin could be completely invalidated.
PiCoin price range... direction determination
The PiCoin price chart has currently reached an important inflection point. For the rebound structure to gain strength, PiCoin must re-break the $0.222 range. If it breaks above this range stably, a signal for about a 7% additional rise will occur, indicating that buying power still has a strong willingness to defend higher prices. If this condition is met, the price could extend to $0.244 or $0.253, and if the overall market conditions stabilize, even higher could be expected.
Only a rise above $0.284 (the peak at the end of November) could signify an attempt to change direction. However, the likelihood of breaking through that range currently seems low.
The support level is forming just below the current price. The $0.203 area is very important. If the daily candle closes below $0.203, the likelihood of a rebound significantly weakens, and exposure to further declines increases. If this level collapses, PiCoin may re-test lower price levels, and the adjustment could continue one step further.
The rebound scenario only gains strength when the price rises while the CMF rises toward the zero line. Without that signal, upward attempts can be quickly thwarted.