In fact, the current problem with $MERL is not about whether there are favorable factors, but rather who is willing to spend money at this stage.

First, let's look at the realistic supply and demand relationship. This round of unlocking in December essentially adds 'potential sell orders' to the market. Nearly 70 million chips are queued to enter the market, and even if there hasn't been a real sell-off yet, buyers are already calculating: since there will be goods available later, why should I chase now? As a result, demand actively shrinks, and prices naturally cannot rise.

Next, let's look at the participant structure. Early OTC participants have such low costs that they have almost no psychological burden. For them, the most comfortable operation is to wait and sell during a rebound. So you will find that as soon as the price shows any sign of rising, some people start to cash out, making it difficult for the market to form continuity, let alone reverse the trend.

On-chain behavior has already written this expectation on its face. Before the unlocking, 16 million $MERL entered the exchange. To put it bluntly, this is about finding an exit in advance, not wanting to wait for everyone to step on the gas and scramble for liquidity. This action itself is reducing market expectations.

Overall, it currently seems more like a phase where buyers are continuously observing, and sellers are on standby at any moment. In terms of short-term operations, rather than betting on the 'lowest point', it would be better to treat the rebound as an emotional repair window, releasing risks accordingly. At least until there is a significant improvement in structure, rushing to buy the dip looks more like picking up chips for others.

So from my perspective, the odds of going short at 0.45 in the short term are far higher than going long right now.