Happy weekend! The market on Saturday was indeed hard to read, it was flat like a straight line. In such a trend, Zhong Liang feels that everyone should take a break if needed; there is really no need to keep an eye on the market and waste time. Time is the only currency, and trading is about enjoyment. Zhong Liang believes there is no need to be overly concerned about gains and losses. Perhaps short-term fluctuations are inevitable, but investing is a practice. If you cannot endure fluctuations over a day or two, you are destined to be unsuitable for the survival rules of this market, and it would be better to leave early. If you choose to stay, then you must have the determination to steadfastly follow the market trend in your strategy, because this is a market where you can make money whether you go long or short; the rules determine the outcome.
Since Bitcoin pulled back from the 126208 level, it found support at 80600, leading to a rebound. The price has tested the resistance at 94000 multiple times. Currently, there is some controversy: for the bulls, 80600 is seen as the bottom. Although there have been multiple rejections at 94000, the low points of the retracement have been gradually rising, from 80600 to 83700, then 87600, and recently 89200. It is a fact that the low points of the retracement have been consistently rising, while the resistance at 94000 has also been a fact. This has led to a state of divergence between bulls and bears, creating a standoff where neither side can convince the other. Of course, there’s no need for anyone to convince anyone! One can first adopt a short-term strategy of high short and low long positions, watching for which side breaks before deciding whether to chase.
Recently, the market has not continued in either direction, with constant fluctuations. Therefore, retail investors should not chase after rising prices or sell in a panic, as it is easy to get hit on both sides! For short selling, the 94000 level has undoubtedly become the last stronghold. If the price rises again to break this level, those holding short positions must stop-loss here. The continued pressure is a fact, but the downside retracement is not deep, and it has always been unable to open up space. If the prolonged decline does not break down, the support below is likely to become stronger. Therefore, for short selling, one can only consider participating in high short positions around 94000 with a small stop-loss. If it stabilizes above 94000, then one can only wait to participate near 102000, with several thousand points of range in between. At that time, low long positions for short-term trades will also be considered.
For those looking to go long, the focus must be on low buying rather than directly chasing after prices near 94000. Bitcoin's daily K-level price has broken support, and the price has returned below the middle track. The MACD bullish momentum continues to decrease, KDJ has formed a dead cross at a high level and is moving downwards, and the RSI has turned downwards from a high position before starting to stabilize, indicating that the indicators are not very friendly to bulls. The positive news has already been fully digested, and operationally, Zhong Liang's view still emphasizes short selling on rallies. The gap on the weekly K chart has been mostly repaired, and next week's strategy relies on 94000 as the air force's defense, focusing on short selling on rallies, looking down to 88000, 84000, and 80000, with a swing target of 75000 unchanged. The strong support below is at 88000; if the price breaks below this level, the market will weaken, and the probability of a rebound to the upside will be very slim. For short selling, pay attention to the stabilization of the strong pressure at 94000, which is the last defense of the air force. For long positions, if it breaks below 88000, then one really needs to be cautious about a market crash. Whether to cut losses depends on the individual.
Ethereum's last defense for bears is at the strong pressure level of 3400. If it stabilizes here, it will not be good to short in the short term, and those holding short positions should stop-loss and exit. Operationally, treat 3400 as the upper strong resistance and focus on shorting on rallies. The support below is at the 3000 level; if it breaks below this, the bulls should be cautious. The probability of a crash below 2600 and hitting the previous low will significantly increase.
That's all for the shared thoughts. Before the market moves decisively, whether bullish or bearish, each side always has its own reasoning and persistence. No one needs to convince anyone else. Manage positions that are controllable with acceptable stop-losses, and leave the rest to time for verification. Long and short positions have never been about one side's demise but rather mutual support and being benefactors to each other! In this market, price movements are constantly cycling, and there is no everlasting champion, only those who last long. Gains and losses originate from the same source, so risk control must come before profit. If you cannot afford to lose on a trade, then you are unlikely to gain the profits you desire.
