#CPIWatch 🚨 I'm keeping an eye on these two dates — Short-term $BTC trend defined here 🚨
Ignore the noise and false signals. Here's where BTC really is right now.
Folks, many of you have been waiting for a clear analysis on BTC. In recent days, the market itself has been confused, and I’ve also been busy, so I didn’t want to impose views. Now, the structure, trading data, and macro are aligned, so here’s a clean outlook.
BTC in a quiet phase.
On the two-hour chart, the price is stuck in a narrow range with long candles on both sides. This is not an organic price movement. It’s driven by macro and liquidation. Liquidity is piled up below $84,500–$86,000, where most long positions are, and above $95,000–$96,000, where short positions are being pressured. Until one side is cleared, expect candles, not trends.
The trading data supports this. Open interest has decreased by about 3–5%, financing is near balance, and liquidations are under control. The long/short ratio remains near 65–70% long. This is a reset of leverage, not a distribution and not a breakdown yet.
The next short-term movement comes from the macro.
The employment data on December 16 generally triggers the first liquidity withdrawal. The consumer price index on December 18 generally sets the direction. CPI expectations are near the low 3% range, with core CPI around the mid 3%, bond yields are stable, and the dollar is calm. The market is not pricing in a hot inflation shock.
😎 My logic is simple. The short-term bias is bullish after the liquidity withdrawal. It’s not a direct pump, but the chances of an upward movement are higher if the price accepts above $95,000–$96,000. A clean break below $84,500 changes that perspective.
