Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading in a very tight range and remains just below the upper boundary of its trend channel. Based on the current market structure and historical behavior, the probability of a major breakout over the weekend appears relatively low.
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🔍 Market Context: Why the Weekend May Stay Quiet
Historically, Ethereum—along with the broader crypto market—rarely sees strong trend breakouts over weekends, especially when:
Trading volume is steadily declining
Liquidity naturally thins toward year-end
Lower timeframes lack impulsive price action
In such conditions, markets typically move sideways, which is exactly what ETH is doing now.
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📊 Ethereum Trend Channel & Higher Timeframe Outlook
At the moment, $ETH is trading below the upper boundary of its trend channel but is still holding above the channel’s midline, located around $2,800 – $2,810.
⚠️ A decisive break below this midline would significantly increase the likelihood of a deeper downside move.
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🔽 Potential Downside Target (Wave 5 Scenario)
👉 $2,626 – $2,258
At this stage, there is not enough evidence to confirm a market top. However, early warning signals suggest that the corrective structure may already be complete.
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🌊 Elliott Wave Analysis: Two Scenarios in Play
Ethereum currently presents two valid scenarios:
🟡 Scenario 1 (Yellow Count – Bearish Continuation)
Wave 4 likely ended at the November 21 low
$ETH may now be starting a Wave 5 impulse to the downside
This move would typically unfold as a five-wave structure
This scenario gains confirmation below $2,800
🔵 Alternative Scenario (Bullish Diagonal Potential)
The November 21 low may represent a meaningful bottom
A diagonal structure could be developing
Confirmation requires a break above $3,245
While the structure is not ideal, it would still be taken seriously if confirmed
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⏱ Short-Term Weekend Range: Key Support & Resistance
Due to low volume, $ETH is currently respecting a classic weekend range.
🟢 Weekend Support:
$2,983 – $3,068
Price has already bounced from this zone.
🔴 Weekend Resistance:
$3,156 – $3,245
This area aligns with the upper boundary of the trend channel.
The current price action likely represents a corrective bounce (Wave 2) rather than the beginning of a new impulsive move.
📌 Volatility may increase late Sunday, but until then, Ethereum is expected to remain range-bound.
