MERL has pulled up to around $0.44 this time, breaking into the top $100 in market capitalization. Behind this seemingly strong performance lies a carefully designed trap by the market makers, taking advantage of low liquidity over the weekend. Their goal is likely to find enough counterparties at the price peak to smoothly offload their positions. Technically, the key resistance level at $0.44 has been tested repeatedly without a successful breakthrough; the structure has already weakened, and any rise is unlikely to sustain, with a reversal to the downside possible at any moment.

The real blow comes from the supply side. In mid to late December, tens of millions of low-cost OTC tokens will be unlocked, and this supply surge may exceed the buying pressure in the market. Those early holders with substantial profits from low-cost positions are eager to cash out at high prices. When the market generally anticipates this selling pressure, buying will naturally retreat, reducing the rebound potential of prices, and entering a downtrend is a high probability outcome.

On-chain data also proves this phenomenon. Whales have transferred tens of millions of $MERL to the Bybit exchange, worth millions of dollars. Moving tokens to exchanges serves as a reference signal for whales sprinting ahead of the upcoming unlocking peak, aiming to avoid significant slippage due to insufficient liquidity. Such unusual movements may amplify bearish market sentiment, triggering subsequent sell-off situations.

Technical weakness, capital outflow, and massive supply present a triple signal for a bearish layout. Selling pressure exceeds buying support. Therefore, this rebound is merely a clearing opportunity provided by the market makers. An executable profit strategy is to short at high points, entering the $0.44 - $0.45 region, looking downward, as the potential is significant; missing this opportunity would be quite regrettable!