The recent bearish voices are rising again, especially when ZEC drops, there are always those who shout 'there are no more opportunities.' Don't rush to conclusions! The current market is more complex and dangerous than you think.
About BTC: Is it a trap or a real drop? 87,000 is the bottom line!
Currently, BTC is in a very strange sideways accumulation phase, and everyone is betting on the direction.
* Key point game:
* Defense line: 87,100 - 85,300. This is a hard hurdle; if it breaks, don't say 108,000, even standing firm at 90,000 is a problem.
* Attack line: Want to return to 108,000 or even a new high? Currently, it seems unlikely. Unless there is a major positive macroeconomic factor to hedge, the time window has already been compressed, requiring a longer time for consolidation to create space.
* Countdown signal:
* Daily level: 23 hours will reveal the truth!
* Weekly level: 11 days determine life and death!
* Is this wave a 'massive short squeeze' (exploding long positions) or a 'double kill' (spike and harvest)? The trend is providing an answer.
About Japan's interest rate hike: Don't be scared by the 'little days'!
Recently, there have been rumors that Japan's central bank's interest rate hike will trigger a global sell-off, but I don't think so.
* My understanding: This interest rate hike in Japan is less about 'flapping butterfly wings' and more about a passive pursuit for progress during an economic cycle.
* Essence: This is not for self-preservation, but a desire to get a share of the pie at the international financial table; it's a move by the 'cunning ones'.
* Impact: Although it has led to short-term liquidity tightening, it has not reversed the trend. Those exaggerated, unfounded panic reactions are purely 'hot air'. The real resilience of a bull market will not be overturned by these small waves.
About ETH and altcoins: Beware of the 'second' causing trouble!
* Risk warning: What we fear most now is not BTC's decline, but Ethereum (the 'second') collapsing the entire market.
* Key levels: If ETH breaks below 2950 and further dips into the 2750 - 2520 range, that would be truly 'bad', directly collapsing the altcoin ecosystem.
* Current situation of old fans: I am glad to see everyone has been controlling their positions well recently and not getting trapped. Keeping up with the rhythm, consecutive wins should be the norm!
Summarize my viewpoint
1. Do not turn bearish on the entire bull market just because of a single cryptocurrency's (like ZEC) decline; that is an emotional reaction.
2. Currently in a critical period of a major cycle game, Japan's interest rate hike is just an interlude; the core still depends on BTC's support strength around 87,000.
3. In terms of operations: Since the market is strange, do not blindly over-leverage. Wait for confirmation of signals on the daily and weekly levels; better to miss out than to make a mistake.
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