🔥【Latest Probability Interpretation】Is there still a chance for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates early next year? Market trends have emerged! $BTC $ETH $BNB
According to the latest CME "FedWatch" data, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve early next year have begun to surface:
📉 Probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January next year is 24.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is as high as 75.6%;
📈 By March, the probability of maintaining the rate is 50.5%, cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 41.4%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 8.1%.
Key meeting dates: January 28, 2025, March 18 (the original text mistakenly mentioned 2026, presumed to be 2025 meeting).
💡 In summary, although the market anticipates a rate cut, the short-term attitude remains cautious, with more bets placed after the first quarter of next year. If inflation continues to be controlled and economic data remains stable, around March may become a crucial observation window for a liquidity shift.
📌 For the crypto market, interest rate expectations continue to be an important barometer. Once the probability of a rate cut further increases, liquidity expectations will drive sentiment to warm up. Awaiting data, staying vigilant, and preparing for phased positioning.
