How might the price go at the end of the year $BTC ??👇🏼👇🏼

Looking at the IV and skew until December 14, $BTC appears to be structurally weak in the two weeks before the end of the year, rather than about to rise or fall dramatically.

1️⃣ Volatility (IV): Holiday Trading

The implied volatility (ATM IV) for options in the Christmas week is actually lower (around 42–43%), indicating that the market does not believe there will be a significant trending market during Christmas week.

2️⃣ Skew: Everyone is hedging against a downturn, rather than betting on an increase

Although it seems overall calm, put options are clearly more expensive in the 7–21 day time window (skew between -4.8 and -5.8), especially for the downward direction expiring on December 26, which has been significantly marked up. This indicates that capital is buying insurance in advance for the possibility of a downturn.

This does not mean the market will definitely fall, but it implies:

👉 If there is a decline, it is more likely to be a rapid drop, rather than a slow decline;

👉 Conversely, the market is not seriously betting on a sudden rise at the end of the year.

Note: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and predictions are not guaranteed to be accurate. The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

Data Source: Deribit and amberdata