This week's second half expects the 20-day line to flatten! Are opportunities in the A-shares coming?

Core question: Will the 20-day line in the second half of this week likely flatten, and will A-shares usher in clear opportunities? Combining technical analysis and trend logic, the specific analysis is as follows:

Core views on the market

The Shanghai Composite Index is likely to remain mainly in adjustment this week, but the rebound to 3888 points on Friday is a positive signal—this rebound has prevented the short-term 5-day and 10-day moving averages from forming a downward divergence, avoiding further weakening of the trend. However, it is still uncertain whether the adjustment has ended; the index is still in a 'bottoming oscillation' phase, and we need to patiently wait for a clear direction.

Key technical analysis

1. Core impact of the 20-day moving average: Since the week before last, the 20-day moving average has been running downward, significantly suppressing the index (the 20-day moving average is known as the 'trend lifeline'; when it is downward, short-term rebounds are often without foundation). However, with the passage of time, the 20-day line in the second half of this week is expected to flatten, and bulls often concentrate their efforts when the pressure eases (moving averages flatten), which will make the trend environment more favorable for bulls.

2. Key game of the 60-minute rebound channel: There is a clear rebound channel at the 60-minute level. After the index broke the channel on Friday, it rebounded precisely at the channel resistance line. If it can regain the channel with increased volume, it is expected to continue testing the upper boundary of the channel; if it fails to break the resistance line, it will continue to oscillate and整理 in the weak range.

3. Weekly level resonance change opportunity: At the weekly dimension, the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-week lines are about to converge, combined with the expectation of the 20-day line flattening this week, the market is expected to form a 'daily line + weekly line' moving average resonance, which is a significant change signal worth paying attention to.

Conclusion and operational tips

Overall, the current market still lacks clear start signals and is not suitable for blind aggression. However, as the expectation of the 20-day line flattening approaches and the weekly moving averages gradually converge, the conditions for bulls to exert strength are brewing, and the second half of this week can be closely tracked. In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait for clear breakout signals (such as stabilizing above the 60-minute channel resistance line, confirming the flattening of the 20-day line) before making a layout, to avoid entering the market early and bearing oscillation risks.