Shiba Inu's price is going through a particularly tough period this year. The token has declined nearly 70% on an annual basis; it has lost over 90% of its value from its all-time high. With interest in meme coins waning, many are now questioning whether SHIB is slowly approaching death.
This concern was heightened by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stating that meme coins are 'dead.' Ju cited declining dominance and waning speculation as reasons. On the surface, Shiba Inu aligns with this narrative. However, on-chain data adds a new dimension to the picture.
Clearly Shows the Weakness of Shiba Inu in Meme Coins
There is a clear weakening in the overall meme coin market. CryptoQuant data shows that meme coin dominance has fallen to low levels at the beginning of 2024, indicating that speculative activity in altcoins has significantly decreased.
Shiba Inu is right in the middle of this trend. The price continues to remain below long-term resistance, and attempts at rising have not been permanent. 'Smart money' wallets that follow the movements of experienced and active traders have regularly reduced their SHIB positions throughout the year.
This situation is a sign that traders are not taking a short-term reversal position. In short, traders who closely follow the market are not expecting a price explosion or sudden rally.
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Recent derivative product data also supports this picture. In the last 30 days, a large portion of traders in the futures market have reduced their positions. Outside of the largest wallets, leverage usage has remained very limited. This shows that traders are acting cautiously and are not expecting a quick, sharp move.
In short, speculation in the market has dried up. This supports the idea that meme coins are no longer guiding the market as they did in the past. However, speculation is just one aspect of the job.
Whales and Holders Buy While Coins are Withdrawn from the Cryptocurrency Exchange
Despite weak price movement, long-term indicators paint a different picture.
Throughout the year, the number of wallets holding SHIB, that is, the number of holders, continued to increase. This number, which was around 1,460,000 at the beginning of the year, has now reached approximately 1,540,000. Although the increase has been volatile, the overall trend is upward; the number of wallets continued to rise even as prices fell sharply.
Whale data is more striking.
Throughout last year, large investors increased their SHIB balances by approximately 249% according to the graph shared above. There is a 28.5% increase in mega-whale balances. During the same period, cryptocurrency exchange balances, that is, the amount of SHIB held on exchanges, decreased by approximately 22%. Having fewer coins on exchanges may also mean that the risk of sudden sales has decreased.
This trend has gained momentum in recent weeks. Even in the last 30 days alone, whale balances have increased by more than 61%, while significant amounts of SHIB have exited exchanges.
This table indicates cautious accumulation rather than panic or abandonment.
However, it is worth noting: Traders on the derivatives side are not participating in this movement. Outside of large wallets, leverage usage is still low. Whales are acting early, but not aggressively.
Shiba Inu's price structure is weak: However, reversal signals are coming.
SHIB's price movement remains fragile, but there is no hopeless picture either.
On the three-day chart, Shiba Inu is trading within a long-term descending wedge formation. If the price breaks upward, this formation usually results in a bullish outcome. An important signal has formed in recent days.
Between December 3 and December 12, while Shiba Inu's price made a lower low, the momentum indicator, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), made a higher low. This bullish divergence typically indicates that selling pressure is easing and the trend may reverse.
Now, important price levels are emerging more than the narrative.
The first resistance level is around $0.0000092. A clear break above this level would also mean surpassing the upper trend line that has limited the price upward since September. If this breakout is confirmed, the next resistance areas are at $0.000010, $0.000011, and $0.000014 respectively. These points overlap with the peak levels of the last strong rally. Note: However, only a clear attack above $0.0000092 could completely invalidate the claims of it being a 'dead coin'.
On the downside, the structure weakens if it dips below $0.0000075. If permanent movements occur below this level, the recovery scenario becomes invalid and downward risks come back into play.
Shiba Inu is not dead but is not strong either. The wind of speculation has calmed down, traders are cautious, and expecting easy profits in a short time is unrealistic. Still, the increasing number of holders, acceleration of whale accumulation, and decreasing coin balances on exchanges indicate that the chain has not been abandoned.
If the altcoin cycle starts again, it could open a door of hope for Shiba Inu. For now, the project is dominated by a 'survival mode' and a more definitive confirmation from the market is awaited.
