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The US non-farm payrolls report, to be released next Tuesday, will include data from October and November, finally providing policymakers and investors with a more complete picture of the US labor market and ending months of partial uncertainty.
Following a contentious meeting this week, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to a three-year low, with several officials dissenting, the debate centered on whether to prioritize addressing high inflation or a weak job market.
Economists at Citigroup pointed out that the upcoming jobs report may release more conflicting signals. The bank expects a loss of about 45,000 jobs in October but an increase of 80,000 in November. Citigroup economists stated that this rebound may be more related to seasonally adjusted data rather than a "real improvement in worker demand." They also predict the unemployment rate will rise from 4.4% to 4.52%, while a Reuters poll of economists showed an unemployment rate of 4.4%. The Fed's own quarterly forecasts indicate a median unemployment rate of approximately 4.5% by the end of this year.