📌 U.S.-Venezuela Tensions Rise: Betting on Maduro's Future

🚫 Tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela have escalated under President Trump, with maritime strikes, tanker seizures, and sanctions targeting Nicolás Maduro’s regime. Polymarket bettors are increasingly optimistic about Maduro being ousted, assigning a 21% chance of this occurring before January 31, 2026.

⚠️ The U.S. has long deemed Maduro’s rule illegitimate due to election fraud and undermining of democracy. With Trump back in power, Maduro faces renewed accusations of narco-trafficking, including alleged connections to the Cartel de los Soles.

❗️ Since September, there have been over 20 maritime strikes on suspected drug-smuggling vessels, which Maduro condemned as aggressive acts. The U.S. further escalated pressure by seizing the Venezuelan-linked tanker Skipper on December 10, which was carrying 2 million barrels of crude and was part of a "shadow fleet" evading sanctions. Maduro retaliated by labeling this action as "criminal naval piracy."

📈 Polymarket now features 13 wagers related to Maduro and the U.S.-Venezuela standoff. One significant market has seen a volume of $24.49 million focused on when Maduro will leave office. Current odds suggest a 9% chance of his exit by December 31, 2025, increasing to 21% by January 2026, and rising further to 38% by March 31, 2026 as traders consider the impact of sustained pressure.

🗓 Looking ahead to December 31, 2026, the odds shift to a 56% chance of Maduro's departure, indicating that bettors see time as his greatest adversary. There is also a 13% chance predicted for Maduro to hold talks with Trump and a 37% chance of him leaving Venezuela by March 31, 2026.

⚠️ Trump has threatened imminent land strikes against alleged narcotics operations in Venezuela, suggesting a potential shift towards ground-based military action. Polymarket bettors assign a 57% chance of military engagement between the two countries by March 31, 2026, while the likelihood of a full U.S. invasion remains low at 16%.