Background scenario of the cycle for Bitcoin towards 2026
Some technical and cycle models indicate that Bitcoin could form a significant bottom around the $25,000 zone during 2026. If materialized, it would not be an atypical event within the historical behavior of the market.
Deeper bearish cycles tend to extend emotional wear much beyond what most anticipate. When consensus believes that the correction has ended, the market usually continues to press until the remaining excess optimism is eliminated.
More important than debating whether the $25K level is achievable is analyzing who will have the discipline to act when:
The bullish narratives have disappeared
Volume decreases significantly
Market confidence is at lows
True bottoms are not formed in moments of hope, but in stages of total apathy.
If this model proves correct, even partially, 2026 could represent a key phase of strategic accumulation, where long-term wealth is built with patience, rather than chasing price movements.
