Shiba Inu's price has had a tough year. The token is down nearly 70% year over year and more than 90% from its all-time high. With declining interest in meme coins, many are now asking if SHIB is slowly dying out.
That concern increased after CryptoQuant chief Ki Young Ju said that meme coins are 'dead', referring to declining dominance and less speculation. At first glance, it seems that Shiba Inu fits this picture. But on-chain data provides more nuances to the story.
Weakness among meme coins is real, and Shiba Inu reflects that.
The broader market for meme coins has clearly weakened. CryptoQuant data shows that meme coin dominance has fallen to levels from early 2024, signaling less speculation across altcoins.
Shiba Inu mirrors this trend. The price has remained below long-term resistance, and gains have not been sustainable. Smart money wallets, which track experienced and active traders, have steadily reduced SHIB exposure throughout the year.
This suggests that traders are not positioning themselves for short-term gains. Simply put, informed traders are not betting on rapid price increases, let alone large rallies.
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New derivative data recently provides further support for this view. In the last 30 days, most perpetual futures traders have cut exposure. Outside of the largest wallets, the leverage is low. This shows that traders are cautious and do not expect any rapid or explosive movement.
Simply put, speculation has dried up. This supports the idea that meme coins no longer drive the market as they once did. But speculation is just one side of the equation.
Whale wallets and holders are increasing while coins are leaving exchanges
Despite weak price development, long-term behavior tells a different story.
The number of Shiba Inu owners, which shows how many wallets hold SHIB, has continued to increase throughout the year. It started near 1.46 million and has grown to about 1.54 million. The growth has not been steady, but the trend is still positive, even with significant price declines.
The whale data is even more striking.
In the past year, large holders have increased their SHIB holdings by about 249%, according to the image shared earlier. Mega-whales have increased their holdings by approximately 28.5%. At the same time, the balance on exchanges – that is, how many tokens are on trading platforms – has fallen by nearly 22%. Fewer coins on exchanges usually means less immediate selling pressure.
This trend has accelerated recently. Just in the last 30 days, whale holdings have increased by over 61%, and most of the withdrawals from exchanges occurred during this period.
This does not look like panic or that people have given up. It looks like a calm accumulation.
It is still important to note that derivatives traders are not participating. Outside of the largest addresses, the leverage is modest. The whales are early, but not aggressive.
Shiba Inu's price structure remains weak, but a rebound setup is emerging.
SHIB price development is still fragile, but it is not hopeless.
In the three-day chart, Shiba Inu is trading in a long-term declining wedge pattern, a pattern that often becomes bullish if the price breaks upwards. Recently, an important signal has emerged.
Between December 3 and December 12, Shiba Inu's price made a lower low while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, made a higher low. This bullish divergence indicates that selling pressure is weakening, increasing the chances of a trend reversal.
Key levels are now more important than the narratives.
The first resistance lies near $0.0000092. A clear break above this level would mark a breakout from the upper trendline that has constrained the price since September. If confirmed, the next resistance zones are near $0.000010, $0.000011, and $0.000014, which correspond to the previous major peak. Note that only a break above $0.0000092 can completely disprove claims of a 'dead coin'.
On the downside, the structure weakens below $0.0000075. A sustained move below this level would invalidate the reversal formation and reopen downside risk.
Shiba Inu is not dead, but it is also not strong. Speculation is gone, traders remain cautious, and quick gains are unlikely. Nevertheless, an increasing number of owners, significant accumulation among whale wallets, and declining exchange balances suggest that the chain is far from abandoned.
If an altcoin cycle returns, Shiba Inu still has a path to recovery. For now, it is in survival mode, waiting for stronger confirmations.
