📰📰📰📰📰Important macro risk that the market is currently clearly underestimating - Japan
Historically, every time the Bank of Japan has tightened its policy, Bitcoin has experienced a significant drop. The mechanics here are not about 'scary news', but about liquidity.
Japan has been the main source of cheap money for years. Institutions borrowed JPY almost at zero and directed that capital into risk - stocks, crypto, BTC.
When rates rise, the yen strengthens, carry trades begin to unwind, liquidity drains away, and risk assets come under pressure.
This Friday, the BOJ may raise the rate to 75 bps - the first time in 17 years. This is not a local event but a potential trigger for a global repricing of risk. In such a scenario, selling BTC will not be 'panic', but a consequence of liquidity contraction.
Levels around 70K in this context stop looking like fantasy and start looking like a logical continuation of the macro process, if the market does not price this risk in advance.
Do you think the market has already partially accounted for the Japan factor, or are we in for an unpleasant surprise after the BOJ's decision?
And if we see a sharp decline - for you, is this a risk or an opportunity?
