Citigroup: The upcoming non-farm payroll report may release more contradictory signals
On December 14, the Financial Times analysis pointed out that the non-farm payroll report of the United States to be released next Tuesday will include data from October and November, ultimately providing policymakers and investors with a more complete picture of the U.S. labor market, ending months of partial blind flying. The Federal Reserve, after a highly divided meeting this week, has lowered interest rates to a three-year low, with several officials dissenting, and the focus of debate is whether to prioritize high inflation or a weak job market. Citigroup economists pointed out that the upcoming latest employment report may release more contradictory signals. The bank expects a decrease of about 45,000 jobs in October, but an increase of 80,000 in November. Citigroup economists stated that this rebound may be more related to seasonal data adjustments rather than a true improvement in worker demand. They also predict that the unemployment rate will rise from 4.4% to 4.52%, while a Reuters survey of economists shows the unemployment rate at 4.4%. The Federal Reserve's own quarterly forecast shows that the median unemployment rate is expected to be around 4.5% by the end of this year.
