Time is running out for HBAR. In the last 24 hours, the token has declined by about 2%, and the weekly loss is approaching 10%. During this process, the HBAR price broke many short-term support levels and is currently fluctuating around $0.12.
This is a critical level. HBAR can only hold just above the decline zone by 1%, and if it falls below this zone, the price could drop to around $0.10. Such a move would mean a decline of about 12 to 13% from the current level. However, there is still an upward signal that is maintaining the structure at the moment. If it cannot hold, the downward movement may accelerate.
Large Capital is Being Withdrawn: The Setup is Weakening
The main pressure comes from the behavior of large HBAR holders.
We can clearly see this in the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator. The CMF tracks the inflow and outflow of big money by combining price movements with trading volume. If the CMF is above zero, it means large buyers are active. When it falls below zero, it indicates distribution on the selling side.
The CMF for HBAR has clearly worsened. Since December 7, the CMF has dropped more than 400% and has firmly settled in the negative region. In previous pullbacks, the CMF was able to remain positive, so buyers were absorbing the selling pressure. This time, that support is absent.
To closely follow such analyses, you can subscribe to Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Bulletin from here.
Additionally, a clear downward divergence is occurring. Between October 10 and December 14, while the HBAR price was making higher lows, the CMF was making lower lows. This indicates that the recent price stabilization is not receiving strong demand from big players.
In short, while the price tries to stay afloat, big money has quietly exited. This imbalance is making the HBAR price more sensitive.
A Bullish Signal is Still Maintaining Its Strength
Although this big money landscape is weak, a momentum indicator is still giving a bullish signal.
This indicator is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures the strength and speed of recent price movements. It particularly shows when selling pressure turns into fatigue. A reading close to 30 is generally considered to indicate an oversold region.
In HBAR's daily chart, the RSI has created a strong bullish divergence. Between November 21 and December 14, HBAR price made a lower low, while the RSI made a higher low. This is a classic bullish divergence and is often considered a trend reversal signal.
Note: The HBAR price is clearly in a downtrend and has lost more than 48% in value over the last 3 months.
This chart shows that sellers are still pushing the price down, but their power is diminishing each time. Although the decline continues, the selling pressure is weakening. The only remaining bullish argument for HBAR right now is this RSI divergence.
Is the HBAR price declining or changing direction?
Once again, price movement will determine fate. HBAR has been trading below the descending trend line that has limited every rise for weeks. At the same time, the price is holding onto the trend-based Fibonacci support around $0.12. This level forms the base of the descending triangle formation, while the top is completed by that descending trend line.
Here is the last line of defense.
If the level of $0.12 is clearly broken, the next major support is around $0.10. This scenario confirms a drop of 12%-13% and deepens the bear trend.
For a recovery in price, the HBAR price needs to exceed $0.13 again. This level also overlaps with a key Fibonacci retracement area and indicates that buyers are re-entering.
A stronger recovery can only be achieved above $0.13. In this case, the price will rise above the descending trend line and move the structure from a bearish to a neutral zone.
