HBAR is losing time. The token has decreased by almost 2% in the last 24 hours and nearly 10% this week. As a result, the HBAR price has broken several short-term support levels and is now hovering around $0.12.
This level is very important. HBAR is only 1% above a breakdown zone that could pull the price towards $0.10. Such a decline means a loss of 12% to 13% from the current level. However, there is still one bullish signal keeping the structure together. If that signal disappears, the decline could accelerate.
Big money is stepping back and weakening the setup.
The main pressure comes from the behavior of large HBAR holders.
We see this through the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which measures whether big money is entering or exiting by combining price movements with trading volume. If CMF is above zero, large buyers are active. If CMF falls below zero, distribution is taking place.
For HBAR, the CMF has deteriorated significantly. Since December 7, the CMF has fallen by more than 400% and has gone deep into negative territory. In previous declines, the CMF remained positive, indicating that buyers absorbed the selling pressure. This time that support level is gone.
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There is also a clear bearish divergence. Between October 10 and December 14, the HBAR price made higher lows, while the CMF showed lower lows. This means that the recent price stability was not supported by strong demand from major players.
Simply explained: the price tried to hold steady while big money quietly exited. This skewed ratio makes the HBAR price vulnerable.
One bullish signal is still holding the support floor.
Despite the weak outlook among major players, one momentum indicator still gives a bullish signal.
That indicator is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures the strength and speed of recent price movements. The RSI helps to see when selling pressure is nearly exhausted. Values around 30 usually indicate an oversold situation.
On HBAR’s daily chart, we see a bullish divergence on the RSI. Between November 21 and December 14, the HBAR price made a lower low, while the RSI formed a higher low. This is a typical bullish divergence and often occurs as a sign of a trend reversal.
P.S. The HBAR price is clearly in a downward trend and has lost more than 48% in three months.
This indicates that sellers are still pushing the price down, but each time with less force. The decline continues, but the force driven by sellers is weakening. Currently, this RSI divergence is the only bullish scenario that HBAR has left.
HBAR price breaks down or turns the tide.
Price movements determine the final outcome. HBAR is trading below a descending trendline that has been slowing down every rally for weeks. At the same time, the price is at a trend-based Fibonacci support at $0.12. That line forms the base of the descending triangle pattern, which is completed by the descending trendline.
This area is the last line of defense.
If $0.12 clearly breaks, the next major support is around $0.10. This would confirm a decline of 12% to 13% and further strengthen the bearish trend.
To recover, the HBAR price needs to rise above $0.13 again. That level coincides with a significant Fibonacci retracement area and shows that buyers are coming back.
An even stronger turnaround would only come above $0.13. Then the price would rise above the descending trendline and the structure would change from bearish to neutral.
