血色12月！日本加息引爆19万亿金融核弹，比特币生死抄底时刻到了？

Blood-red December! Japan's interest rate hike triggers a financial bomb of 19 trillion, is it time for Bitcoin's life-or-death bottom?

As soon as the news of Japan possibly raising interest rates came out, the market exploded! Now the market is betting that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in December, with the probability soaring to 80%, and the probability for a January hike even reaching 90%. This is no small matter; globally there are 19 trillion dollars in yen carry trades, and once interest rates rise, this money is likely to flee collectively.

This reminds me of the tragedy before Christmas in 2022. At that time, the Bank of Japan suddenly adjusted its policy, raising the 10-year government bond yield ceiling from 0.25% to 0.5%, causing the global market to collapse. Now it's December again, still before the Christmas holiday, and market liquidity is already poor. If Japan makes a sudden move again, the consequences are unimaginable.

For decades, Japanese yen interest rates have been pitifully low, prompting everyone to borrow yen to speculate on US stocks and cryptocurrencies. If Japan raises interest rates, this money will surely flow back. Bitcoin will undoubtedly be the first to suffer. Last time the policy was adjusted, Bitcoin dropped more than 20% in a month, with ETF outflows of 3.5 billion dollars and over 400 million positions directly liquidated; the market is very fragile now.

Don't forget about the Federal Reserve! If Powell doesn't speak tonight, it makes people even more anxious—this kind of silence often means big actions are coming. If Japan tightens and the US doesn't provide liquidity, Bitcoin will face a double blow.

Looking at BNB, it's painful to see it drop. The newly appointed growth director Lina has just taken office, but investors are almost gone; how can growth be achieved? On-chain projects have fallen below CZ's buying price, and that penguin project is in a terrible state now. However, the most anxious ones are not us, but the new management and exchanges; perhaps market rescue measures are already on the way.

But I want to make it clear: the impact of closing carry trades is short-term, not the end of the world. After Japan raises interest rates in 2024, Bitcoin reached a new high within three months. The key is to watch two time points: the Bank of Japan meeting in December and the Fed's dot plot.

At this time, the Yellow Emperor will lead everyone to ambush $BTC, expecting to earn 200 points is not a problem; friends who want to catch this big opportunity, come to 聊天室 to gather #ETH走势分析 .