#加密市场观察 #广场挖矿 The likelihood of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates on December 19, 2025, is extremely high. The market generally expects this meeting to raise rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, with a probability exceeding 80%. Former Bank of Japan officials predict that there may be three more rate hikes after this one, with a final rate possibly reaching 1.5%.

The upcoming interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is primarily driven by the mechanism of withdrawing the 'cheap yen' that has supported global high-risk assets for decades, which will trigger a drastic market revaluation.

To understand its power, one must first recognize a hidden giant—the yen carry trade. For the past few decades, Japan's near-zero interest rates have made the yen the cheapest funding currency in the world. Investors borrow nearly free yen, exchange it for dollars, and then pour into high-yield assets such as U.S. stocks, emerging markets, and cryptocurrencies. This model is astonishingly large, with some analyses estimating its total exceeding $19 trillion.

Core impact path: Reversal of cheap capital flows

Once the Bank of Japan continues to raise interest rates, this massive capital chain will begin to tighten in reverse, creating multiple pressures on the crypto market:

1. Direct impact: Arbitrage trading liquidation sell-offs

· Soaring costs: The cost of borrowing yen is no longer free, and the arbitrage space has been compressed.

· Exchange rate impact: The expectation of interest rate hikes drives yen appreciation, and investors will face exchange losses when repaying yen loans.

· Forced liquidation: Facing dual pressures, institutions holding large leveraged positions will prioritize selling the most liquid assets to repay loans, and the crypto market is often the first target for such sell-offs. Analyses indicate that in early December 2025, Bitcoin plummeted from around $92,000 to $83,800, which was directly related to the liquidation triggered by the strengthening yen.

2. Indirect squeeze: Global liquidity tightening and decline in risk appetite

· Tightening of liquidity sources: The world has lost an important source of low-cost capital.

· Shift in capital attractiveness: If Japanese government bond yields continue to rise to attractive levels (the 10-year yield has recently reached a high not seen since 2008), it may drive capital back from overseas to Japan, further withdrawing from risk markets.

· Rising risk aversion: Against the backdrop of diverging monetary policies of 'Japan tightening and the U.S. possibly easing,' global market uncertainty increases, and risk aversion will first impact highly volatile assets like Bitcoin.

Will it be a 'black swan'?

It is highly unlikely to be a complete 'black swan,' but tail risks cannot be ignored.

· Market has expectations: Currently, the market has high expectations for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates at the December 18-19 meeting, with the probability rising to 70%-80%. A true 'black swan' is an unforeseen shock, while this market has already been gradually digesting it.

· Partially digested: The Japanese government bond yield curve has risen significantly this year, which itself reflects the market's pricing of policy shifts.

· The real risk point: The real risk lies in the magnitude of interest rate hikes or subsequent pace exceeding expectations, or during a period of already scarce liquidity at the end of the year (such as December 19), triggering a chain of leveraged cascading.

Market reaction forecast: Short-term pain and long-term differentiation

Comprehensive analysis suggests the market reaction may present three stages:

Short-term (a few days before and after the resolution announcement): Severe volatility and downward pressure.

This is the moment of highest market tension. Any unexpected hawkish signals will quickly trigger sell-offs through arbitrage liquidation channels. Investors should be particularly wary of extreme volatility risks in high-leverage altcoins.

Medium-term (weeks to months): The market will seek to rebalance.

After the panic selling ends, the market will reprice based on the new liquidity environment and policy path. It is worth noting that analyses indicate that the realization of policy uncertainty (i.e., the 'shoe dropping') may itself eliminate a significant uncertainty, and historically, Bitcoin has often shown resilience after experiencing such macro pressures. Meanwhile, yen appreciation will also reduce the cost for domestic Japanese investors to allocate dollar-denominated crypto assets.

Long-term (structural impact): Reshaping the global crypto capital landscape.

If Japan enters a sustained interest rate hike cycle, it will have far-reaching implications for global capital flows. This may force the crypto market to reduce its reliance on a single cheap currency for leverage. At the same time, Japan's clear regulatory framework and potential exploration of a digital yen (CBDC) may also attract new compliant institutional capital.

Response strategy:

In summary, Japan's interest rate hikes have a systemic impact on the crypto space, as it tests the entire market's leverage levels and risk appetite by tightening the 'main valve' of global liquidity.

For investors, rather than speculating on the outcome of a single event, it is better to examine one's own positions:

· Reducing leverage: This is the primary prerequisite for addressing any macro shock.

· Focus on core assets: During periods of market turbulence, the risk resistance of mainstream assets (such as BTC and ETH) with the best liquidity is far higher than that of altcoins.

· Pay attention to linkage signals: Closely observe changes in the USD/JPY exchange rate and Japanese government bond yields, as they are leading indicators for judging capital flows.

Each major stress test in the market is both an exposure of risk and a litmus test for the strength of long-term value and narratives. This time is no exception.