Coin friends, I am Zhao Gongming! After a weekend of sideways movement, ETH has rebounded, but the market is staging an epic 'prisoner's dilemma'. The 'BTC OG insider whale' who once accurately timed the top has had nearly 100 million USD in ETH orders fully executed, but the result is - total floating losses have expanded to 22 million USD. Follow Zhao Gongming, and in three minutes, I will break down whether this is the starting point of the rebound for 'whales giving birth to all things' or the last inducement before another round of 'longs killing longs'.
News: The whale has become the 'market hostage', with 556 million in long positions being the biggest variable in the rebound.
This whale's 5x leveraged ETH long position has reached 556 million USD, with an average cost of 3169 USD, and a floating loss of 16.8 million. Most of its chips are concentrated in the 3030-3150 range, which explains why the price found support and rebounded in this area.
However, this is by no means a good sign: a heavily underwater whale with a large position is itself a 'potential passive seller' in the market. The rebound has alleviated its liquidation pressure but has also provided a better exit point for reducing its position. The market is using the rebound to test the whale's position tolerance.
Technical analysis: The hourly chart shows a 'strong buy' while the daily and weekly lines indicate a 'sell'—a century divergence.
The hourly candlestick chart shows that the price rebounded to around 318, with a MACD golden cross and short-term momentum strengthening. However, this is a typical 'short long and long short' trap. The key daily and weekly technical indicators still indicate 'sell', which suggests that the rebound lacks support from a larger cycle trend. The upper level of 3260 is a strong resistance level and also a key to judging the nature of the rebound. If it cannot break through with volume, the rebound will form a continuation structure of decline. The flow of funds also confirms the divergence: short-term capital inflow, but a net outflow of 2.24 billion dollars over 10 days, indicating that smart money is still strategically withdrawing.
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Zhao Gongming's views and strategies
In the short term, a technical rebound is observed, but the medium to long-term trend remains bearish. The cost zone of the whale constitutes short-term support and reasons for the rebound, but the whale's own underwater losses and long-term capital outflows determine that the height of the rebound is limited.
Short-term advice: You can participate in the rebound with a light position, but be sure to set strict stop losses. Treat 3150 as the boundary for long and short positions, with targets only looking at the 3230-3260 pressure zone. Once reached, exit decisively, do not linger.
Medium to long-term advice: This rebound should be seen as a valuable opportunity to adjust positions. If the price approaches 3260 and fails to break through, it is a clear signal to reduce positions or exit. The core logic is to reserve cash for potential medium-term declines.
If you are unsure about the specific entry and exit points, and for fans holding positions, you can follow Zhao Gongming. Zhao Gongming will announce daily cryptocurrencies, entry points, and exit timings in the chatroom!#ETH走势分析
