A huge turnover of Bitcoin worth 10 billion is currently taking place! On-chain data shows that in the past 30 days, long-term Bitcoin holders have sold 405,000 BTC, accounting for 1.9% of the total supply. These early low-cost chips are rapidly flowing to ETF buyers and a new generation of institutions. Among them, the most notable is the mysterious whale Owen Gunden, a former director of LedgerX, who transferred 4,300 BTC to Kraken exchange within a week, valued at $450 million at current market prices, yet still holds 5,350 BTC, making his actions a 'precise reduction.' Many investors ask me: Is the whale's selling a bearish signal? What is the logic behind the new institutions taking over? How should ordinary people keep up with this wave of market structural change? Today, let’s use exclusive on-chain analysis to help you see the truth.
First, understand the essence of whale trading: it's not about being bearish, but rather an inevitable stage of market maturity. Early whales like Owen Gunden may have had a holding cost as low as a few dozen dollars; today, with Bitcoin prices exceeding $87,000, the profit potential has reached thousands of times. Some selling is a rational asset reallocation. More critically, these tokens have not disappeared but have flowed to more powerful new institutions—data shows that about 17.8% of BTC is held by spot ETFs and large treasury funds, and the level of institutional involvement has never been this high. The core logic of this shift is 'cost basis elevation': the low-cost tokens of early whales exit, and new institutions take over at a cost of tens of thousands of dollars, which will significantly reduce market volatility and, in the long run, serve as a strong bullish signal. Many people worry that 'whale selling will trigger a collapse', but historical data shows that after every large-scale token transfer, Bitcoin starts a new upward cycle.
The three core logics of new institutions taking over determine future investment directions. The first is 'asset allocation demand': Crypto assets have low correlation with traditional assets, which can effectively diversify risks. Bank of America recommends wealth management clients allocate 1%-4% of their digital assets, based on this logic. The second is 'technical grounding support': The application of blockchain in payment, data storage, and other fields continues to deepen, with RWA, AI + Crypto, and other tracks exploding, allowing institutions to see real value beyond speculation. The third is 'regulatory compliance advancement': The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs and the improvement of regulatory frameworks for RWA in various countries have reduced the compliance risks for institutions entering the market. Taking BlackRock as an example, its BUIDL fund, which splits U.S. debt via Ethereum, has surpassed $2.89 billion, with a 200% growth in 90 days, which is the best proof of institutional recognition.
How should ordinary people seize this opportunity? Here are three practical techniques for 'following institutional layouts'. The first is 'tracking ETF fund flows': if Bitcoin spot ETFs have a net inflow of over $100 million for three consecutive days, and on-chain institutional wallets increase their holdings simultaneously, it may be appropriate to increase core asset positions. The second is 'selecting institutional heavy positions': from the current institutional trends, RWA (Real World Asset tokenization), high-performance Layer 1 (such as SUI, AVAX), and AI infrastructure are the three main focuses. BlackRock launched a tokenized fund on AVAX, and Franklin Templeton is laying out RWA, both sending clear signals. The third is 'avoiding whale liquidation risks': by marking key whale addresses with on-chain tools, if a certain address sells more than 30% of its holdings in a short period, and there are no institutions taking over the corresponding tokens, it is necessary to reduce positions immediately.
We must also be wary of a misconception: do not overinterpret the movements of a single whale. Owen Gunden's transfer has been widely discussed in the market, but another whale, 1011 Insider Whale, deposited 500 BTC, which is actually liquidity management rather than bearishness. When analyzing, it's important to consider the overall market context, such as the MVRV ratio, ETF fund flows, macro policies, etc. My core view is that Bitcoin is transitioning from 'held by a few' to 'institutionally diversified holdings', which is an irreversible trend. Short-term volatility is a necessary process for institutional takeovers; in the long run, the market after token transfers will be healthier. I will continue to update the whale address tracking list and institutional heavy project summary in Binance Square, follow me @链上标哥 to stay on track! I will guide you to accurately keep up with institutional steps!
