This week's market feels like it has been paused, with not even a ripple. Is everyone just preparing to run alongside the Americans for Christmas? As a seasoned player in the crypto space, I advise you all: this water is deep enough to drown new players. The best strategy right now is to 'watch more and act less'; don't force your way into the excitement!
Newcomers might ask, isn't it just Christmas? Why does it cause the entire market to go silent? You might be too young to understand! This week, the 'information overload' from the U.S. can trigger a chain reaction in the sectors we are focusing on. However, everyone is currently in a wait-and-see mode, and no one dares to act lightly. Today, I will break down these key points for you, all valuable insights, so take good notes!
First is the non-farm payroll data coming out on Tuesday, which directly relates to the interest rate cut expectations for January next year; those who understand, understand! If the data deviates, whether good or bad, it could break the current balance. You need to know that the sector we are focusing on is extremely sensitive to liquidity; even slight changes in the interest rate cut pace could trigger subsequent chain reactions. My personal judgment is that this non-farm payroll data is unlikely to be too extreme, as the Fed is currently 'crossing the river by feeling the stones' and won't easily release clear signals, so there's no need for excessive panic in the short term.
More critically, Thursday is known as the 'Super Data Day'! First, the US CPI data will be released, which is one of the core references for Fed officials when making interest rate cut decisions. If inflation is high, the interest rate cut may be delayed; if inflation is low, the expectations for rate cuts will heat up. For us, the trend of the CPI data directly determines the degree of monetary easing in the market, which is more useful than any rumors. Following that, the number of initial unemployment claims in the US will also be released; this data reflects the state of the US labor market. Stable employment means a stable economy, while employment fluctuations may force policy adjustments. Only by looking at the two together can we accurately judge the subsequent direction.
In addition to the data, officials' speeches cannot be ignored! Federal Reserve Chairman Williams will give two speeches this week, and he is one of the 'core big shots' of the Fed, with every word he says likely to be over-interpreted by the market. Here's a little tip: when listening to such speeches, don't take them at face value; think about his 'implicit meanings,' such as whether he mentions inflation targets, employment conditions, the pace of policy adjustments, and other key information, as these are where the real insights lie. However, to be honest, as Christmas approaches, it's very likely that the big shots won't release overly aggressive comments and will primarily 'play tai chi,' so there's no need for everyone to over-interpret and get misled.
After all that talk, let's return to the question we care most about: why is there no movement in the market right now, and what should we do? My personal view is very clear: take a break! The market is currently in a state of 'information vacuum' and 'holiday observation,' with both bulls and bears unwilling to act easily. Blindly operating at this time is likely to lead to 'getting hit from both sides.' Instead of wasting energy in these meaningless fluctuations, it's better to calm down and wait for clear signals. It's not too late to act once the data is released and the policy direction becomes clear.
Finally, let me share a heartfelt word: in our line of work, it's not about who operates diligently, but who can remain calm. The market does not lack opportunities; what it lacks is a clear mind before opportunities arise. I will continue to track this data and officials' speeches, providing you with interpretations of the underlying logic and response strategies at the first opportunity.
If you find this content helpful, don't forget to like and follow! Do you think this CPI data will exceed expectations? Follow me @链上标哥 so you won't get lost! I'll help you avoid the pitfalls of the market and seize real opportunities. See you next time!
