Recently, are you feeling more and more like cursing while watching the market? The Federal Reserve officially announced easing, and everyone is holding onto their money waiting for the market to take off, but the market remains stagnant; meanwhile, there are rumors that Japan will tighten liquidity, which has scared many people into liquidating their positions overnight, only to look back and see that the market will do what it will do. Mainstream assets are being pulled back and forth in a range every day, with both bulls and bears being repeatedly harvested. Many friends ask me: 'Old player, is this market crazy? Where's the promised capital market?'
Don't rush to smash the keyboard, and don't think it's just bad luck. After eight years of crawling in this circle, I've seen too many situations like this where 'news is flying everywhere, and the market pretends to be dead asleep.' To put it bluntly, it's not that the market is strange, it's that you haven't seen through the 'hidden rules' of the market — today, I'll share some valuable insights with you. If you understand these, you can at least avoid 80% of the pitfalls.
Let me splash some cold water on everyone: all the major news you've seen today has already been 'spoiled' by the main players. Whether it’s the Federal Reserve's easing signals or rumors of interest rate hikes from Japan, they are not sudden black swan events but expectations that have been repeatedly discussed and deduced by the market over the past month or two. It’s like a rehearsed play; the moment the official news is officially announced, it is not the starting point of the market but the 'cash-out endpoint' of prior sentiment.
This is why we often see the drama of 'good news not rising, bad news not falling.' The main players have quietly laid out their plans while news is fermenting, and when retail investors rush in upon seeing the news, they either take the opportunity to sell or wash the plate in reverse. What you think is an 'entry opportunity' is actually someone else's 'checkout window'; this is the cruel truth of the market: money always runs faster than news, and by the time you see it, your share is long gone.
One of the most common mistakes that beginners make is treating news as the 'command stick' of the market, constantly refreshing news apps, rushing in when they see good news, and cutting losses when they see bad news. But what I want to tell you is: what determines the market's rise and fall has never been the headlines but whether the funds are willing to 'stay.'
Every day, I ask myself three questions, and I also suggest everyone ponder them: First, is the capital entering the market now looking for a long-term layout, or just trying to profit from a piece of news? Second, after the news has landed, is there new capital willing to take over? Third, is the current market sentiment truly stabilizing, or is it just a temporary rebound?
The answer is obvious: right now, short-term speculative capital accounts for the majority, while true long-term capital is just observing. Without a continuous influx of new funds, the market can only oscillate in a range, appearing to have breakthrough hopes every day, but in fact, every rise is a 'trap for speculation.' This does not mean the market is weak; rather, the funds are 'gathering strength,' waiting for a certain signal.
Speaking of which, I must remind everyone: at this stage, the most dangerous thing is not the steadfast bulls or bears, but the 'emotional players' being led by the nose by the news. The logic of their operations is particularly simple: chase when they see good news, run when they see bad news, without even understanding the candlestick charts, their positions are already full. What’s the result? Emotions fluctuate three times a day, and the account balance continues to drop, turning themselves into a 'cash machine' for the market.
The market is currently doing one thing: waiting for a variable that cannot be ambushed in advance. This variable is neither the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts nor Japan's interest rate hikes—these have already been digested by the market. What can truly break the current oscillating pattern is the genuine choice of direction for funds, the further clarification of macro risks, and the breakthrough after market sentiment has been thoroughly smoothed out. Before that, the trend is likely to be 'unable to rise, unable to fall deeply, specifically treating those who lack patience.'
Finally, let me say something heartfelt to friends who are still holding on in the market: If you've been feeling eager to make a move lately but always feel something is off, getting slapped in the face every time you enter the market, it’s not your fault; it’s just that this stage is not meant for emotional players.
At this time, what really needs to be done is not to blindly take sides but to first clarify your own positioning: Are you here to endure the cycle, or are you here to gamble on sentiment? The market has trends every day, but there are not many who can survive to wait for the direction to emerge. If you can understand this, you have already outperformed half of the people in the market.
Of course, changes in the market are always faster than we imagine. I will continue to track the flow of funds and new dynamics at the macro level, sharing my latest judgments with everyone at the first opportunity. If you want to know how to position yourself currently, or want to avoid potential pitfalls, follow me @链上标哥 so you won't get lost! Remember, in this market, surviving is the only way to wait for the real opportunity!
