After staying in this market for a long time, you will slowly realize one thing: the market changes every day, the stories are never the same, but the logic that truly drives prices remains the same for ten years.
Many people think they are losing money because they missed the opportunity, didn't hear the insider information,
didn't catch the right news. In fact, it's not.
It's that you are always standing in the position most easily harvested in the script.
The big players are never in a hurry to push up the prices. They are better at one thing: first making you form a judgment, then going against your judgment.
You see consecutive rises, and start to believe "the trend is coming"; you see favorable news being released frequently,
and you start to think "this time is different"; you see shallow pullbacks and assume "the main force is washing the plates".
But the truth is: when most people start to form a consensus expectation, the market has already entered the realization stage.
A decline does not happen suddenly; it often occurs when: emotions are most unified, narratives are most complete, and beliefs are most steadfast.
The same goes for rises. Real initiations almost always happen when: no one is speaking, no one is optimistic, trading volume shrinks, and emotions approach collapse.
Many retail investors' biggest misconception is trying to "decipher intentions" from the trends.
A single candlestick, a pattern, a segment of rising, and they start to backtrack:
Is it about to take off? Is big capital coming in? But the market is not for you to solve puzzles; it is to create illusions for you.
When you start guessing the plot, you are already standing on the wrong side.
Those who can truly survive are not the ones who understand the "story," but those who recognize their own position. They do not guess what the big players are going to do,
only care about three things:
Is the emotion extreme right now?
Is there certainty in this market?
If I am wrong, can I retreat unscathed?
So when you look back, you will find: every round of the market only changes names, tracks, and concepts, but the path of harvesting is almost identical.
First create consensus, then provide hope, and finally quietly exit in the liveliest place.
The plot will continue to be refreshed, but the script has never changed.
