After waiting for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, I thought it would ignite the crypto market, but instead, Bitcoin directly staged a 'surge and dive' act, turning downward before even touching the 95000 mark. This operation completely reversed nearly half a month's rebound trend and firmly validated my previous judgment: don't be fooled by short-term fluctuations; as long as the consolidation pattern hasn't broken, bottom fishing is purely a gamble!
Let's first look back at the recent trends and let the data speak for itself. On November 28, that surge reached 93100, and many retail investors were asking if we were going to start the second wave of the bull market. I directly poured cold water in the comments: without breaking through the key resistance level, every surge is just 'baiting the bulls.' As expected, more than ten days later, the high only touched 94600, not even reaching 95000, let alone the critical threshold for a trend rebound at 98000 that I emphasized before. It's like climbing a mountain; if you haven't even passed the halfway mark, how can you talk about reaching the summit? From the current market perspective, the 4-hour downtrend signal is becoming increasingly obvious, and there isn't much time left for the bulls.
The most frequently asked question in the background recently is: "Is 80600 the short-term bottom? Can we bottom-fish?" Here I must clarify my personal view, which is also the core insight based on cycle theory analysis: The short-term bottom cannot be guessed; we must wait for the complete downtrend at the 4-hour level to confirm. Many new friends like to "catch a falling knife" because they do not understand the completeness of the trend. Let me emphasize: If this decline can hold above 80600 and the daily level shows a "second buy" signal, then the daily level rebound can be considered to have a basis for starting; however, if it unfortunately breaks below 80600, then the previous rebound can only be seen as a "minor episode" during the decline, and the real rebound will have to wait longer. However, one thing remains unchanged: there will likely be a daily level rebound from late December to late January. The key now is not to guess the bottom but to patiently wait for the starting signal. The position of 80600 has not yet passed the market's "test"; don't rush to take action!
Let's talk about short-term operations. This part is for friends who like to do swing trading; beginners are advised to skip it to avoid being harvested back and forth. From the 1-hour level, the price has already formed a clear central structure. The previous surge before the interest rate cut was actually the "departure phase" of the central structure. Now that it has fallen back into the central area, it indicates that the rhythm of short-term rebounds has been completely interrupted. I judge that the 1-hour level correction starting from 94500 is not yet complete, with the first key support level to focus on being 87000. Here is a key judgment criterion: once it effectively breaks below 87500, it can basically confirm that the downtrend at the 4-hour level has officially started, and at least three movements of "down-up-down" at the 1-hour level will occur, at which point the opportunity for bottom-fishing will become clearer.
The 15-minute level trend is even more interesting. Last Friday was simply a "roller coaster" scene: first dropping to 89200, then suddenly a V-shaped rebound to 93500, followed by another drop to around 90000, and directly entering a "lying flat" mode for horizontal consolidation over the weekend. Some friends might find this trend too complicated and impossible to operate, but I want to say: The more complex the trend, the more you need to grasp the core logic. My short-term strategy has always remained the same—focusing on high shorts. Pay close attention to the support range of 89000-90000. If 89000 cannot hold, it is highly likely to drop to 87000; only by stabilizing above 90300 can we confirm the start of the 1-hour rebound. At that point, considering short-term longs is not too late; there's no need to take risks right now.
Having talked about the price, let's discuss Ethereum. Relatively speaking, Ethereum's trend structure is clearer and easier to analyze. The decline from the 1-hour level starting at 3450 has already broken below the key position of 3100. The previously anticipated 1-hour central "three buys" signal has completely failed, which also means that the probability of a downtrend at the 4-hour level has significantly increased. Once the downtrend at the 4-hour level begins, Ethereum will at least need to probe below 2800. As for whether it can break below the previous low of 2620, it's hard to say right now; we need to watch as we go along, as unexpected events may occur in the market at any time. In the short term, the 1-hour decline is not yet complete, with a focus on the support level of 2950. I expect there will be a rebound at the 1-hour level next week, at which point the key will be to watch the strength of the rebound. If the rebound is weak, that would be a good opportunity to continue shorting.
Finally, let me give everyone a trend overview to help clarify thoughts and avoid being misled by short-term fluctuations:
Weekly and daily levels: The direction is clearly downward; the daily downtrend has not yet ended, and the position of 71000 is unlikely to be broken; everyone need not panic too much;
4-hour level: The direction is also downward. Breaking below 87500 is a key signal confirming the downtrend at the 4-hour level, everyone must pay close attention;
1-hour and 15-minute levels: The short-term direction is downwards, focusing on two core points—the strength of the decline and the support level of 89000, these two factors will determine the rhythm of short-term operations.
In general, the current market is still mainly in a volatile downtrend. Don't let occasional rebounds cloud your judgment; patience is always the most valuable quality in the crypto market. Many friends are often harvested because they neither understand technical analysis nor are good at chasing highs and cutting losses. I will continue to track the changes in the market and share my latest judgments with everyone in the comment section at the first opportunity. I will also periodically explain practical techniques like the theory of cycles and level analysis.
Finally, I have a question for everyone: Do you think this time the price will break below 87000? Feel free to leave your views in the comment section, like and follow to stay on track, we will continue to uncover those "little secrets" in the market at the same time tomorrow! It's okay if you missed today's insightful analysis, just follow me, and you won't get lost! There will be more exclusive views and operational strategies later to help you avoid pitfalls and seize opportunities!
