📊 Important Data and Events Preview for Next Week (Must Read)

For stocks, cryptocurrencies, and U.S. bonds

Next week will be an extremely critical week. It is a week that requires full attention to the market

Employment, inflation, and interest rates will simultaneously provide answers, leaving no ambiguous space for the market.

This is a concentrated verification of 'Is the U.S. economy really doing well?'

It will also directly determine the Federal Reserve's attitude, interest rate expectations, and the directional choice of risk assets.

📅 Monday

• 🟠 21:30 U.S. December New York Fed Manufacturing Index (Empire State)

• As the earliest regional manufacturing data released

• Focus Points:

　- Whether the manufacturing sector continues to contract

　- Whether it aligns with subsequent PMI signals

• Importance: Medium

• Role: Setting the tone for macro expectations this week

📅 Tuesday (Employment + Consumption Double Whammy Day)

• 🔴 U.S. November Non-Farm Payroll Report (Big Non-Farm) & Unemployment Rate

• Long-term lack of employment data has led to prolonged market debate

• Focus Points:

　- Whether employment shows significant cooling

　- Whether it verifies the 'economic soft landing' narrative

• Importance: Extremely High

• 🔴 U.S. November Retail Sales Data (Terrifying Data)

• Directly reflects the consumption intensity of U.S. residents

• Impact: Consumption → GDP → Monetary Policy

• 🟠 S&P Global Manufacturing / Services PMI

• Used to verify business sector sentiment

📅 Thursday (Inflation + European Central Bank)

• 🔴 European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision

• Focus on whether to continue signaling a rate cut

• 🔴 U.S. November CPI Inflation Data (Major)

• Core basis for the Federal Reserve's 'reluctant to cut rates' faction

• Focus on core CPI and inflation stickiness

• 🟠 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

• The last time saw the largest increase since March 2020

• Watch for potential trend deterioration

📅 Friday (Super Risk Day ⚠️)

• 🔴 Bank of Japan (BOJ) Interest Rate Decision

• Market Expectation: High probability of rate hike

• Historical Experience: BOJ is likely to trigger cross-market volatility

• 🟠 Consumer Confidence Index & Inflation Expectations Data

✅ Core Logic for Next Week

Employment sets the direction

Inflation provides the answer

Interest rates create volatility

• Employment cooling + Inflation retreat → Benefiting risk assets → Improved Crypto sentiment

• Strong employment + Inflation stickiness → Delayed rate cuts → Market pressure