Daily Global Forex Market News Summary (2025-12-15)
US Dollar:
1. Federal Reserve's Powell: More focused on employment risks, monetary policy is restrictive. Tariffs may raise costs but have not triggered widespread inflation.
2. Federal Reserve's Harker: Current Fed policy is near the neutral rate, I lean towards a slightly more restrictive policy stance. The weakening of the dollar reflects a 'normal' shift by investors.
3. Federal Reserve's Goolsbee: Should wait for more data before cutting rates. I expect more rate cuts in 2026 than the median.
4. Federal Reserve's Schmidt: Inflation remains too high, should moderately maintain a restrictive monetary policy.
British Pound:
1. UK's economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% in October, and economic growth has gradually slowed this year.
2. Traders are increasing bets on the Bank of England's easing policy, expecting a 60 basis point rate cut by the end of 2026.
3. Bank of England survey: 38% of respondents expect interest rates to rise in the next 12 months.
Japanese Yen:
1. It is reported that the Bank of Japan will start selling ETF holdings as early as January.
2. Sources say the Bank of Japan will commit to further rate hikes at this week's policy meeting, but will emphasize that the pace of further hikes will depend on the economy's response to each hike. Some officials believe the neutral rate is above 1%.
3. Japan's Finance Minister Katayama expresses recognition of the Bank of Japan's expectations for rate hikes.
4. Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara: The Bank of Japan's Tankan survey results are consistent with the government's view that the economy is gradually recovering.
5. Bank of Japan: Most companies seem to believe that wage increases for FY2026 should be on par or similar to FY2025.
