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#巨鲸动向 等7万的大饼
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#美国非农数据超预期 涨吗？
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加息会不会大跌了，大佬分析分析分析
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日本央行本月18-19日加息预期利空持续施压，市场对流动性收紧的担忧急剧升温，加上微策略昨天重挫8.3%的影响下，$BTC 昨夜引发恐慌下跌，最低跌至85000关口。 回顾24年日本开启的本轮加息周期，历次加息落地后均引发大饼的大幅回调。24年3月加息后跌约23%，7月加息后跌约26%，今年1月加息后跌幅更是超30%，且下跌幅度呈逐步扩大态势。结合这一历史规律，叠加年底圣诞节临近市场流动性更加偏紧的背景，此次加息落地后对大盘后市不容乐观。本次反弹高度94500离滚仓挂单95000的价格仅差500刀，年底大概率完成不了大饼的滚仓动作了，继续持仓等待明年一季度下破8万。
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Grayscale预测2026年比特币将创新高，四年周期或终结 AI 总结 期待
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