$MERL Today's short-term breakthrough at 0.44 USDT, then slightly retreated to around 0.436, with a 24H increase of over 17%, and market capitalization returned to the top 100. However, upon closer inspection, during these past two days with low liquidity over the weekend, the price repeatedly surged, yet consistently failed to hold at the key resistance level of 0.45. Both the 4-hour and daily charts show signs of turning downward, indicating a clear weakening structure. It is highly likely that the market makers are taking advantage of low liquidity to drive up prices, enticing retail investors to enter long positions and creating a false breakout illusion. More critically, there is pressure from the supply side: the concentrated unlocking period in December has arrived (including dates like 12/12, 15, 16, 19, etc.), with a total of about 70 million MERL to be released, significantly expanding the circulating supply. Even if OTC holders do not immediately sell off completely, the market's psychological expectation of a 'supply flood' has already set in, leading to a retreat in buying and early reduction of holdings by coin holders, severely limiting the rebound potential. Recently, there has also been a large transfer of 16 million coins, further intensifying selling pressure. The willingness to arbitrage after the unlocking of early low-cost holdings is strong; although there has been a slight uptick in momentum recently, the true bear market initiation is not far off. I personally hold a strong bearish view on MERL's recent trend, and suggest focusing on short positions in the 0.44-0.45 range, building positions in batches, which may yield a small profit. Risk is on you, DYOR! #MERL #cryptocurrency #bearish