MORNING THOUGHT
Bitcoin is trading around the weekly 100 EMA, currently acting as dynamic support. There is no confirmed weekly bounce yet, making this level critical for the next phase of price discovery.
Scenario 1: 100 EMA Holds
If BTC holds the weekly 100 EMA and moves higher, this would indicate the move is corrective rather than a confirmed breakdown. From here, focus should be on the quality of the recovery — whether price shows strength and acceptance or begins to face rejection near resistance.
Scenario 2: 100 EMA Breaks
If the weekly 100 EMA is lost, price is likely to move toward the 74K–78K horizontal support (~12% below). A bounce from this zone is likely, but such a move may result in a lower high, making it important to watch for a potential head-and-shoulders structure. Any rejection from the lower-high area would increase the risk of further downside.
Cycle-Level Risk Context
If this plays out, the prior high near 126K could remain a seasonal or cycle top for this phase. $BTC
