$GUN
72% win rate locked? Federal Reserve chairman's top candidate says: listen to Trump, but I call the shots!
When Powell's term ends in May next year, who will steer the Federal Reserve, the 'global central bank big brother'? The answer is quickly surfacing, and the top candidate Kevin Hassett's remarks have heightened the suspense—saying, 'I'm happy to chat with Trump every day,' yet firmly stating, 'the president has no voting rights; decisions are based on data.' This balancing act has left the market on edge!
As the chief economic advisor at the White House, appointed by Trump, Hassett has long been seen as the designated candidate, with prediction platforms showing his nomination probability soaring to 72%, significantly higher than his opponent Kevin Walsh. However, in the face of Trump's strict order that 'interest rates must drop,' he suddenly publicly drew a line: 'The president's suggestions are insightful, but the Fed must make independent decisions; FOMC members should veto when necessary.' While he flatters the president by saying, 'chatting is too much fun,' he also maintains the bottom line of central bank independence, and this maneuver has been interpreted as 'soothing the market + not going against the boss' double insurance.
On the other hand, candidate Walsh represents a completely different style. The former Federal Reserve governor directly criticized Powell for lowering interest rates without data support and harshly criticized the Fed's models as entirely wrong, declaring he wants to implement thorough reforms—abandoning bank regulation and clearing government bond holdings, which would completely overturn the operational logic of the Federal Reserve. On one side is the moderate and balanced Hassett, and on the other is the radical reformer Walsh. Trump, however, sweetly states that both Kevins are excellent, but in reality, he has long regarded interest rate cuts as the only assessment standard.
More critically, this contest is not just about U.S. domestic politics but also a pivotal point for global finance; any movement in the Fed's interest rates will shake the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and cryptocurrencies. If Hassett is elected, can he really listen to advice while maintaining independence? Or is this just a delaying tactic to soothe the market, ultimately unable to escape Trump's pressure for interest rate cuts? If Walsh's radical reforms take effect, won't the global market be thrown into chaos?
How long do you think Hassett's balancing act can last? Can he truly maintain the independence of the Federal Reserve, or will he become Trump's tool for interest rate cuts? Which of him or Walsh would be more friendly to the cryptocurrency space?