A warning of an 80% chance of a drop to $25,000 due to a broken parabolic structure, while Grayscale bets that large institutions will push the all time high of $126,000 by 2026.
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🔹 Brandt notes that previous parabolic structure break have led to sharp declines. Potential triggers include a reversal of the Yen interest rate differential or the removal of BTC Treasury bonds from the MSCI index decision expected on January 15.
🔸 Grayscale argues that this cycle is different due to the maturity of institution. They believe $BTC has bottomed out, citing discounted valuation of BTC Treasury bond manager and strong option position.
🔹 A major tug of war is underway. While ETF are recording inflow of $287 million, long term investor are selling an average of 279,000 BTC ($25 billion) per day. Key liquidity zone to watch $87,000 and $95,000.
With long term investor selling billion of BTC daily amidst a fragile parabolic structure, will the institutional investor market floor hold, or will the $25,000 level become a real nightmare?
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