Let's first discuss the news situation; this is not just casual talk, but rather key information that can influence market direction:
The U.S. is set to release two important data points this week: the CPI and the employment report. Once these two pieces of data are out, it will essentially determine whether the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates next year or if they will have to pull back on their previous rate-cutting plans.
The current market sentiment is extremely sensitive and fragile; even a hint of inflation causing a rebound sends everyone into a panic. If the dollar strengthens, all global risk assets will suffer. There's something even more significant: on Friday, there's an index rebalancing event. Simply put, funds that reach a trillion dollars in size will be forced to adjust their positions and sell stocks. Such a large-scale withdrawal of funds will definitely tighten market liquidity, and it could potentially trigger a panic sell-off, causing all markets to tremble.
Looking at the 4-hour candlestick chart of ETH.
The key level of ETH at 3150 must be closely watched.
I’m stating my position directly; this price level is the dividing line between bulls and bears on the daily chart. Looking at the 4-hour chart, ETH shows signs of rebounding, with MACD forming a golden cross below the zero axis, seeming like it’s about to make a push upward. But don’t celebrate too early; there’s a significant barrier ahead, which is the price level of 3150 USD, like a difficult checkpoint to cross.
If ETH can break through 3150 USD with volume and hold steady, then the market will change dramatically, directly entering a short squeeze mode, with a short-term target reaching the range of 3260 - 3320 USD. However, I need to remind everyone in advance that when we reach this range, I will not hesitate to call for short positions. Why? Because the pressure in this range is particularly strong, making it a high-value point for shorting.
However, ETH couldn't rise above 3150 again, which makes this rebound deceptive, meant to keep retail investors from rushing out. As a result, the daily trend will turn bearish. The first support level to test is the psychological barrier at 3000. If this level can't hold, the support levels below at 2900, 2800, or even 2700 are unlikely to hold either, and we'll have to test them one by one.
ETH at this position of 3150, if it breaks through, it will definitely look bullish; if it falls below, it will certainly look bearish. Before the two key data releases in the U.S. on Friday and the rebalancing of the indices is fully resolved, the market simply doesn't have the momentum to truly break through the 3150 level.
I think it feels more like the market is stagnant before the release of data and events, while also misleading people into entering, actually trying to wash out those uncertain chips, and then accumulating strength to see which direction to go next. Even if the price of ETH goes above 3150 in the short term, the market liquidity outside looks like it’s about to tighten, making it very difficult for it to hold steady up there, not to mention opening up upward space.
So, in the coming days of this week, ETH is likely to first make an upward push, and then drop down again, struggling to rise above or near 3150, and then turning down to test the support in the 3000 - 2900 range.
What should retail investors do now?
Absolutely don't act impulsively to chase highs; rushing in blindly now carries a lot of risk. It’s better to miss this wave of market movement than to make a hasty wrong decision and end up with significant losses.
The price of 3150 USD must be closely monitored. If ETH can break through this price and hold steady, then we can consider making a short-term long position, with a short-term target focused on the range of 3260 - 3320 USD.
If the price of ETH falls below 3000 USD, we need to be cautious. If it drops and has no strength to rebound, then don't hesitate, consider reducing positions quickly, or find ways to hedge against risks, so that losses don't expand.
When trading, don't be greedy; don't think about making a windfall all at once. Near the resistance level, we can try to take some short positions, but we must set stop-losses. If the market breaks through the resistance level, don’t stubbornly hold on, withdraw the short positions quickly.
At this time, the Emperor will have everyone set up a position with $ETH, expecting to gain 200 points is not a problem. Friends who want to catch this big opportunity come along.Chat roomGathering.#ETH走势分析
