Brothers, I am Mig.
Today, watching SOL, do you feel particularly twisted? On one hand, ETF data shows that institutions spent 33 million dollars last week to bottom fish, while on the other hand, the coin price is stuck at 134 and won't move up. What kind of trick is this market playing?
Don't panic, today I'm not just going to show you the lines, but I will also break down and explain the 'funding script' behind it.
The news front is far more critical than what you see!
Many people only look at the headlines in the news: 'ETF net inflow of 33.6 million' — and then think, 'Oh, great news.' That's too superficial. Mig will take you deeper:
Who are the main buyers? Bitwise and Grayscale, these two giants hold the majority. They are not retail investors, but 'smart money'. Their continuous buying indicates that SOL's long-term valuation and ecological position are severely recognized by professional institutions, laying the groundwork for the future.
But why isn't it rising now? This is the key! ETF buying is 'allocation-type', a slow and steady flow, supporting the bottom range and long-term expectations. Meanwhile, short-term prices are dominated by 'trading-type' funds, which focus on technical patterns, market sentiment, and immediate gains and losses.
Currently, these two forces are in conflict: long-term funds are buying, while short-term selling pressure is selling.
From a technical perspective, it's a standard 'bull-bear game chart'.
Let's look at the 4-hour chart; this is a tug-of-war:
Resistance above: 134-136 is a strong resistance area that has been unable to stabilize despite multiple tests during today's rebound. If it can't get past this, all short-term rebounds are just paper tigers. Further up, the abyss threshold is at 140-145.
Support below: The first level 127-124 is a position that short-term bulls must defend. If this level breaks, market sentiment will plummet, rushing directly to the ultimate bottom area of 120.
Current indicator truth: The MACD has a golden cross below the zero axis; this is just a technical recovery signal after an oversold condition, not a call for trend reversal. Moreover, the trading volume has not seen a significant breakthrough, indicating insufficient strength from the main funds to push upward.
Mig's personal opinion: If it can't stabilize around 134-136, it is likely to turn back down, reaching the first target of 127-124, or even testing the bottom support at 120. The overall daily trend is still dominated by bears; if SOL can hold above 136, it means the first defensive line of the bears is broken, increasing the chances of a second push to challenge 140 and 145.
Retail investor operation suggestions:
If you currently hold coins with a high cost: don't hold on stubbornly. If the rebound can't get past 134-136, that’s the defensive point for reducing positions or cutting losses. Preserving capital is always the priority.
If you want to enter the market now: definitely don't chase the price! Be patient and wait for two opportunities: either wait for it to stabilize at 136 and then enter to aim for a new high; or wait for it to drop to a level, such as stabilizing around 127-124 or even near 120, and then enter gradually when a clear stop-loss signal appears.
Maintain a calm mindset: Don't let a single bullish candle change your faith. The ETF news is a long-term positive, but changing the short-term trend requires time and greater buying power.
The market is always changing, but 'large capital flow' and 'key price defenses' will never lie. Today, Mig has outlined the conflict points and key levels of these two factors for you. How to choose depends on your own risk preference.
Want to know how I, Mig, led my brothers in the village to dodge spikes and set precise ambushes? Follow Mig and participate in every attack by Mig's villagers! Mig will announce specific entry times and real-time news every day in the village!
