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Title: Economic Data Surges! Is It a 'True Recovery' or a 'Short Pulse'?
This set of data is indeed impressive! While we closely monitor the inflation curve, the job market suddenly throws out a series of 'contradictory data' — what is really happening in the American economy?
📈 Three sets of data worth savoring:
· Job growth exceeds expectations, doubling: an increase of 119,000 jobs, with the construction industry adding 19,000 in a single month (a new high for the year)
· The delicate balance between wages and inflation: workers' real annual income is expected to grow by $1,200, while during previous peaks of inflation, real income had shrunk by $3,000
· Shift in employment structure: new jobs are noticeably leaning towards local labor
🔍 The logic chain behind the data is worth pondering:
1. If employment remains strong, does it mean economic resilience is better than expected?
2. Will income improvement translate into consumer confidence, thereby affecting market liquidity?
3. What does this structural change mean for the long-term economic landscape?
⚠️ Points to consider calmly:
· Can monthly data establish a trend?
· Is the recovery balanced across different industries?
· Can policy-driven growth be sustained?
💡 Insights for market participants:
History shows that turning points in economic data often precede shifts in market sentiment. The current strong performance of the job market may require us to reassess some fundamental assumptions — but any conclusions will need more time for validation.
What are your thoughts?
Do you see this as a signal of economic turning, or a temporary phenomenon? Will this change affect your asset allocation strategy?
