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【Citigroup Warning: Next Tuesday's Non-Farm Data May Release 'Contradictory Signals', Federal Reserve Policy Discrepancies Likely to Worsen】
According to analysis by the Financial Times, the U.S. non-farm payroll report to be released next Tuesday will include data from October and November, providing the market with a more complete picture of the labor force. However, Citigroup economists have issued a warning: this report may release more contradictory signals, further deepening internal divisions within the Federal Reserve.
📉 Data Prediction: One Decrease, One Increase, Rebound Likely Unsustainable
Citigroup expects that October job positions will decrease by about 45,000, while November will increase by 80,000. However, the bank emphasizes that this rebound is more a result of statistical seasonal adjustments rather than actual improvements in labor demand. Meanwhile, Citigroup predicts the unemployment rate will rise from 4.4% to 4.52%, slightly higher than the 4.4% in a Reuters survey.
⚖️ Core of Internal Discrepancies within the Federal Reserve
Although the Federal Reserve lowered rates by 25 basis points this week, there were clear divisions during the meeting. Several officials hold differing views on whether to prioritize combating inflation or stabilizing employment. If employment data exhibits characteristics of 'large overall fluctuations and unstable structure', it may further intensify policy debates within the Fed.
🛫 From 'Blind Flying' to 'Data Fog'
Although the bi-monthly data will end the previous 'blind flying' state caused by statistical delays, contradictory signals may trap the market in a new 'data fog'. Investors need to be wary of the market's renewed swings in interest rate path expectations following the release of the employment report.
One set of data, two interpretations. When statistics meet reality, the Federal Reserve's path to rate cuts may not be smooth. $BTC $ETH $XRP #美国初请失业金人数
According to analysis by the Financial Times, the U.S. non-farm payroll report to be released next Tuesday will include data from October and November, providing the market with a more complete picture of the labor force. However, Citigroup economists have issued a warning: this report may release more contradictory signals, further deepening internal divisions within the Federal Reserve.
📉 Data Prediction: One Decrease, One Increase, Rebound Likely Unsustainable
Citigroup expects that October job positions will decrease by about 45,000, while November will increase by 80,000. However, the bank emphasizes that this rebound is more a result of statistical seasonal adjustments rather than actual improvements in labor demand. Meanwhile, Citigroup predicts the unemployment rate will rise from 4.4% to 4.52%, slightly higher than the 4.4% in a Reuters survey.
⚖️ Core of Internal Discrepancies within the Federal Reserve
Although the Federal Reserve lowered rates by 25 basis points this week, there were clear divisions during the meeting. Several officials hold differing views on whether to prioritize combating inflation or stabilizing employment. If employment data exhibits characteristics of 'large overall fluctuations and unstable structure', it may further intensify policy debates within the Fed.
🛫 From 'Blind Flying' to 'Data Fog'
Although the bi-monthly data will end the previous 'blind flying' state caused by statistical delays, contradictory signals may trap the market in a new 'data fog'. Investors need to be wary of the market's renewed swings in interest rate path expectations following the release of the employment report.
One set of data, two interpretations. When statistics meet reality, the Federal Reserve's path to rate cuts may not be smooth. $BTC $ETH $XRP #美国初请失业金人数
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