Bloomberg Industry Research Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone's Extreme Bear Market Scenario Prediction for Bitcoin:
1. Core Prediction: McGlone believes Bitcoin is a high-beta risk asset, with its price closely correlated with speculative assets such as US stocks. He points out that if macroeconomic pressures persist along with the structural weaknesses of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin could fall to $10,000; given the current weak market sentiment, he believes a drop to $50,000 is more realistic, and it is highly likely to fall below $84,000 by the end of 2025.
(Note: The numbers #彭博分析师预测比特币跌至1万美元 $BTC appear to be unrelated and likely represent data points from a different source. They have been omitted from the translation.) 2. Core Prediction Basis: First, the logic of mean reversion. Bitcoin rose from $10,000 in 2020 to over $100,000 in 2025, and he believes this surge is due for a correction, with the price likely to revert to historical levels. Second, he denies Bitcoin's safe-haven status as "digital gold," stating it is actually a highly volatile leveraged asset. The surge in gold prices and the subsequent decline in Bitcoin prices in 2025 corroborate his view. Third, he associates it with traditional market risks. He believes traditional markets like the US stock market have potential correction risks, and Bitcoin, as a risk asset, would be affected and experience a significant drop.
3. Market Controversy: This extreme prediction has not become a market consensus. Institutions like Bernstein are optimistic, predicting Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of the year. CryptoQuant also believes that if large-scale selling pressure continues to ease, Bitcoin could rebound to $99,000 or even $112,000. However, some analysts agree with his bearish view; for example, some traders predict that Bitcoin could plummet below $70,000 after reaching $100,000. Overall, the market is significantly divided on its price trend.
